Recent polling and seat projections place the CAQ in a competitive but diminished position heading into the October 5, 2026, election, with models such as 338Canada showing an average around 28 seats and wide simulation ranges that support a substantial probability of 30 or more. The party has gained ground in late-August and early-September surveys under new leader Christine Fréchette, rising into second place behind the Parti Québécois at roughly 24 percent support while overtaking the Liberals, aided by francophone backing in suburban and regional ridings amid trade tensions. Voter fatigue after eight years in government, combined with a fragmented federalist vote split between the CAQ and Liberals, limits the CAQ’s path to its prior majorities and keeps outcomes below 30 seats plausible in many scenarios. Multi-party dynamics and dozens of tight PQ-CAQ contests add uncertainty to final seat totals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoElezioni generali in Quebec: CAQ # Seats?
Elezioni generali in Quebec: CAQ # Seats?
30+ 49%
25-29 22%
20-24 10%
10-14 7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
5 ott 2026
<5
4%
5-9
5%
10-14
7%
15-19
5%
20-24
10%
25-29
22%
30+
49%
30+ 49%
25-29 22%
20-24 10%
10-14 7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
5 ott 2026
<5
$511 Vol.
4%
5-9
$926 Vol.
5%
10-14
$2,638 Vol.
7%
15-19
$1,068 Vol.
5%
20-24
$659 Vol.
10%
25-29
$1,103 Vol.
22%
30+
$1,759 Vol.
49%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling and seat projections place the CAQ in a competitive but diminished position heading into the October 5, 2026, election, with models such as 338Canada showing an average around 28 seats and wide simulation ranges that support a substantial probability of 30 or more. The party has gained ground in late-August and early-September surveys under new leader Christine Fréchette, rising into second place behind the Parti Québécois at roughly 24 percent support while overtaking the Liberals, aided by francophone backing in suburban and regional ridings amid trade tensions. Voter fatigue after eight years in government, combined with a fragmented federalist vote split between the CAQ and Liberals, limits the CAQ’s path to its prior majorities and keeps outcomes below 30 seats plausible in many scenarios. Multi-party dynamics and dozens of tight PQ-CAQ contests add uncertainty to final seat totals.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercato aperto: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$8,665Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling and seat projections place the CAQ in a competitive but diminished position heading into the October 5, 2026, election, with models such as 338Canada showing an average around 28 seats and wide simulation ranges that support a substantial probability of 30 or more. The party has gained ground in late-August and early-September surveys under new leader Christine Fréchette, rising into second place behind the Parti Québécois at roughly 24 percent support while overtaking the Liberals, aided by francophone backing in suburban and regional ridings amid trade tensions. Voter fatigue after eight years in government, combined with a fragmented federalist vote split between the CAQ and Liberals, limits the CAQ’s path to its prior majorities and keeps outcomes below 30 seats plausible in many scenarios. Multi-party dynamics and dozens of tight PQ-CAQ contests add uncertainty to final seat totals.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$8,665Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling and seat projections place the CAQ in a competitive but diminished position heading into the October 5, 2026, election, with models such as 338Canada showing an average around 28 seats and wide simulation ranges that support a substantial probability of 30 or more. The party has gained ground in late-August and early-September surveys under new leader Christine Fréchette, rising into second place behind the Parti Québécois at roughly 24 percent support while overtaking the Liberals, aided by francophone backing in suburban and regional ridings amid trade tensions. Voter fatigue after eight years in government, combined with a fragmented federalist vote split between the CAQ and Liberals, limits the CAQ’s path to its prior majorities and keeps outcomes below 30 seats plausible in many scenarios. Multi-party dynamics and dozens of tight PQ-CAQ contests add uncertainty to final seat totals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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