**Recent U.S.-Iran developments center on calibrated military pressure, naval measures, and diplomacy rather than ground operations.** Following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that began February 28, 2026, and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the conflict involved targeted strikes on military and nuclear infrastructure, followed by Iranian retaliation. Hostilities produced a ceasefire in April and a June memorandum of understanding addressing sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, nuclear limits, and regional de-escalation, with technical talks continuing into August. Ongoing tensions have focused on Iranian threats and U.S. naval blockades around the Strait of Hormuz, plus occasional strikes or redirected shipping, but without large-scale troop deployments or efforts to seize and hold Iranian territory. President Trump has repeatedly signaled preference for negotiated outcomes, including recent pauses on planned strikes tied to progress in talks mediated by parties such as Pakistan and Oman. These patterns—combined with high historical costs of occupation, the short window remaining before December 31, 2026, and trader emphasis on containment through sanctions, air/naval actions, and economic incentives—support the current 82.5% implied probability that the United States will not commence an offensive to establish control over any portion of Iran by the resolution date.