Recent July monthly inflation of 2.1% (above the 2.0% consensus and up from June’s 1.9%) has kept trader focus on whether seasonal winter effects, regulated price adjustments, and core dynamics will sustain momentum near 2% or allow further moderation in August. The closely matched 50% probability on 1.8-2.0% versus 42% on 1.5-1.7% underscores the contested outlook, with swing factors including peso stability under the expanded exchange-rate band, fiscal restraint under President Milei, and potential volatility in food or energy components. Analysts’ year-end 2026 forecasts near 29-30% anchor expectations, while the September 10 INDEC release serves as the immediate catalyst. Market-implied odds capture skin-in-the-game assessments of these near-term pressures amid ongoing disinflation.