Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's strong fundraising—over $1.1 million raised with $712,000 cash on hand—and the district's deep Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+39, Kamala Harris won 84.5% in 2024) underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for the CA-12 House seat. California's top-two primary on June 2 will likely advance Simon over challenger Jamie Joyce (D), with no active Republican after Heath Fulkerson's withdrawal, ensuring a Democrat in the November general. Recent Simon announcements securing $142 million in federal East Bay funding bolster her position amid Joyce's calls for party overhaul. A GOP upset would require an unforeseen primary qualifier and national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$33,778 Vol.
$33,778 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$33,778 Vol.
$33,778 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$20,165 Vol.
94%
共和党
$13,612 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's strong fundraising—over $1.1 million raised with $712,000 cash on hand—and the district's deep Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+39, Kamala Harris won 84.5% in 2024) underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for the CA-12 House seat. California's top-two primary on June 2 will likely advance Simon over challenger Jamie Joyce (D), with no active Republican after Heath Fulkerson's withdrawal, ensuring a Democrat in the November general. Recent Simon announcements securing $142 million in federal East Bay funding bolster her position amid Joyce's calls for party overhaul. A GOP upset would require an unforeseen primary qualifier and national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$33,778終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's strong fundraising—over $1.1 million raised with $712,000 cash on hand—and the district's deep Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+39, Kamala Harris won 84.5% in 2024) underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for the CA-12 House seat. California's top-two primary on June 2 will likely advance Simon over challenger Jamie Joyce (D), with no active Republican after Heath Fulkerson's withdrawal, ensuring a Democrat in the November general. Recent Simon announcements securing $142 million in federal East Bay funding bolster her position amid Joyce's calls for party overhaul. A GOP upset would require an unforeseen primary qualifier and national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$33,778終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's strong fundraising—over $1.1 million raised with $712,000 cash on hand—and the district's deep Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+39, Kamala Harris won 84.5% in 2024) underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for the CA-12 House seat. California's top-two primary on June 2 will likely advance Simon over challenger Jamie Joyce (D), with no active Republican after Heath Fulkerson's withdrawal, ensuring a Democrat in the November general. Recent Simon announcements securing $142 million in federal East Bay funding bolster her position amid Joyce's calls for party overhaul. A GOP upset would require an unforeseen primary qualifier and national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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