California's 12th congressional district stands as one of the most reliably Democratic seats nationwide, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+39 and consistent strong performance for Democratic candidates, including roughly 85 percent support for the party's 2024 presidential nominee. Heavy Democratic voter registration, urban demographics across the San Francisco Bay Area including Oakland and Berkeley, and the absence of competitive Republican candidates reinforce this positioning. Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary, consistent with all major forecasters rating the general election as safe or solid for the party. A decisive national political shift or unforeseen candidate-specific development would be required to alter the current trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$43,474 Vol.
$43,474 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
96%
共和党
2%
$43,474 Vol.
$43,474 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$26,300 Vol.
96%
共和党
$17,173 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district stands as one of the most reliably Democratic seats nationwide, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+39 and consistent strong performance for Democratic candidates, including roughly 85 percent support for the party's 2024 presidential nominee. Heavy Democratic voter registration, urban demographics across the San Francisco Bay Area including Oakland and Berkeley, and the absence of competitive Republican candidates reinforce this positioning. Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary, consistent with all major forecasters rating the general election as safe or solid for the party. A decisive national political shift or unforeseen candidate-specific development would be required to alter the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$43,474終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district stands as one of the most reliably Democratic seats nationwide, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+39 and consistent strong performance for Democratic candidates, including roughly 85 percent support for the party's 2024 presidential nominee. Heavy Democratic voter registration, urban demographics across the San Francisco Bay Area including Oakland and Berkeley, and the absence of competitive Republican candidates reinforce this positioning. Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary, consistent with all major forecasters rating the general election as safe or solid for the party. A decisive national political shift or unforeseen candidate-specific development would be required to alter the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$43,474終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 12th congressional district stands as one of the most reliably Democratic seats nationwide, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+39 and consistent strong performance for Democratic candidates, including roughly 85 percent support for the party's 2024 presidential nominee. Heavy Democratic voter registration, urban demographics across the San Francisco Bay Area including Oakland and Berkeley, and the absence of competitive Republican candidates reinforce this positioning. Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary, consistent with all major forecasters rating the general election as safe or solid for the party. A decisive national political shift or unforeseen candidate-specific development would be required to alter the current trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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