Incumbent Democratic Representative Kevin Mullin secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with strong margins, facing Republican challenger Charles Hoelter in the November general election for California's 15th congressional district. The seat's pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in voter registration advantages and historical results exceeding 70 percent for the party, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic outcome. Mullin's established incumbency and the district's partisan voting index further reinforce this positioning. Shifts could occur from late developments such as unexpected candidate withdrawals, major scandals affecting either nominee, or an unusually strong national Republican wave altering turnout patterns in this safely Democratic area.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$121,677 Vol.
$121,677 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
2%
$121,677 Vol.
$121,677 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$93,610 Vol.
95%
共和党
$28,067 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Kevin Mullin secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with strong margins, facing Republican challenger Charles Hoelter in the November general election for California's 15th congressional district. The seat's pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in voter registration advantages and historical results exceeding 70 percent for the party, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic outcome. Mullin's established incumbency and the district's partisan voting index further reinforce this positioning. Shifts could occur from late developments such as unexpected candidate withdrawals, major scandals affecting either nominee, or an unusually strong national Republican wave altering turnout patterns in this safely Democratic area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$121,677終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Kevin Mullin secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with strong margins, facing Republican challenger Charles Hoelter in the November general election for California's 15th congressional district. The seat's pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in voter registration advantages and historical results exceeding 70 percent for the party, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic outcome. Mullin's established incumbency and the district's partisan voting index further reinforce this positioning. Shifts could occur from late developments such as unexpected candidate withdrawals, major scandals affecting either nominee, or an unusually strong national Republican wave altering turnout patterns in this safely Democratic area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$121,677終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Kevin Mullin secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with strong margins, facing Republican challenger Charles Hoelter in the November general election for California's 15th congressional district. The seat's pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in voter registration advantages and historical results exceeding 70 percent for the party, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic outcome. Mullin's established incumbency and the district's partisan voting index further reinforce this positioning. Shifts could occur from late developments such as unexpected candidate withdrawals, major scandals affecting either nominee, or an unusually strong national Republican wave altering turnout patterns in this safely Democratic area.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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