California's 14th Congressional District, a safe Democratic stronghold with a Cook PVI of D+19 and heavy Democratic voter registration in the East Bay, drives trader consensus to 92.5% odds for a Democratic Party win in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's consistent rejection of Republican candidates despite the recent open seat. Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 13 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations—reported by the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN—triggered a crowded nonpartisan top-two primary featuring well-funded Democrats like Rakhi Israni ($2M raised) and Aisha Wahab ($229K cash on hand, per March FEC data), sidelining GOP hopefuls early. The June 16 special primary will preview dynamics, but a Republican upset would require top-two advancement against a divided Democratic field, candidate scandals, or a national midterm wave—scenarios with low base rates in safe seats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,004 Vol.
$25,004 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$25,004 Vol.
$25,004 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$7,920 Vol.
93%
共和党
$17,084 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th Congressional District, a safe Democratic stronghold with a Cook PVI of D+19 and heavy Democratic voter registration in the East Bay, drives trader consensus to 92.5% odds for a Democratic Party win in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's consistent rejection of Republican candidates despite the recent open seat. Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 13 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations—reported by the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN—triggered a crowded nonpartisan top-two primary featuring well-funded Democrats like Rakhi Israni ($2M raised) and Aisha Wahab ($229K cash on hand, per March FEC data), sidelining GOP hopefuls early. The June 16 special primary will preview dynamics, but a Republican upset would require top-two advancement against a divided Democratic field, candidate scandals, or a national midterm wave—scenarios with low base rates in safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$25,004終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th Congressional District, a safe Democratic stronghold with a Cook PVI of D+19 and heavy Democratic voter registration in the East Bay, drives trader consensus to 92.5% odds for a Democratic Party win in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's consistent rejection of Republican candidates despite the recent open seat. Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 13 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations—reported by the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN—triggered a crowded nonpartisan top-two primary featuring well-funded Democrats like Rakhi Israni ($2M raised) and Aisha Wahab ($229K cash on hand, per March FEC data), sidelining GOP hopefuls early. The June 16 special primary will preview dynamics, but a Republican upset would require top-two advancement against a divided Democratic field, candidate scandals, or a national midterm wave—scenarios with low base rates in safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$25,004終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th Congressional District, a safe Democratic stronghold with a Cook PVI of D+19 and heavy Democratic voter registration in the East Bay, drives trader consensus to 92.5% odds for a Democratic Party win in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's consistent rejection of Republican candidates despite the recent open seat. Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 13 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations—reported by the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN—triggered a crowded nonpartisan top-two primary featuring well-funded Democrats like Rakhi Israni ($2M raised) and Aisha Wahab ($229K cash on hand, per March FEC data), sidelining GOP hopefuls early. The June 16 special primary will preview dynamics, but a Republican upset would require top-two advancement against a divided Democratic field, candidate scandals, or a national midterm wave—scenarios with low base rates in safe seats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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