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選挙·世界選挙

ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者

icon for ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者
選挙·世界選挙

ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者

ダニエル・エニス 75%

ジャニス・ボイラン 18.1%

ゲリー・ハッチ 4.6%

レイ・マカダム 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,067,680 Vol.

ダニエル・エニス 75%

ジャニス・ボイラン 18.1%

ゲリー・ハッチ 4.6%

レイ・マカダム 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,067,680 Vol.

ダニエル・エニス

$29,650 Vol.

75%

ジャニス・ボイラン

$16,729 Vol.

18%

ゲリー・ハッチ

$503,040 Vol.

5%

レイ・マカダム

$33,252 Vol.

2%

ギリアン・シェラット

$181,905 Vol.

1%

ジャネット・ホーナー

$11,268 Vol.

1%

マラキー・スティーソン

$19,915 Vol.

1%

イアン・ノエル・スミス

$12,683 Vol.

<1%

メアリー・フィッツパトリック

$44,400 Vol.

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$52,694 Vol.

<1%

セーアマス・マグラッタン

$8,623 Vol.

<1%

ジョン・スティーブンズ

$153,521 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).**Trader consensus heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 74.5% implied probability to win the Dublin Central Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by his strong local profile—he worked for sitting TD Gary Gannon before his 2024 council election—and the party's foothold in this competitive three-seat constituency previously held by Fine Gael's Paschal Donohoe.** Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan trails at 17.8% following her recent council debate gaffe linking water fluoridation to dental issues, which she later clarified, potentially denting momentum in leader Mary Lou McDonald's home patch amid fragmented left-wing votes from Labour, Greens, and People Before Profit. Independent Gerry Hutch garners 4.6% on novelty bets despite his criminal background, with over €500,000 wagered on him per reports; Fine Gael's Ray McAdam faces an ethics complaint over alleged misuse of an official car. No public polls have emerged, leaving odds shaped by campaign trail buzz and historical independent strength, though late scandals or turnout could shift the closely watched race.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
音量
$1,067,680
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).**Trader consensus heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 74.5% implied probability to win the Dublin Central Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by his strong local profile—he worked for sitting TD Gary Gannon before his 2024 council election—and the party's foothold in this competitive three-seat constituency previously held by Fine Gael's Paschal Donohoe.** Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan trails at 17.8% following her recent council debate gaffe linking water fluoridation to dental issues, which she later clarified, potentially denting momentum in leader Mary Lou McDonald's home patch amid fragmented left-wing votes from Labour, Greens, and People Before Profit. Independent Gerry Hutch garners 4.6% on novelty bets despite his criminal background, with over €500,000 wagered on him per reports; Fine Gael's Ray McAdam faces an ethics complaint over alleged misuse of an official car. No public polls have emerged, leaving odds shaped by campaign trail buzz and historical independent strength, though late scandals or turnout could shift the closely watched race.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
音量
$1,067,680
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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よくある質問

「ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上の12個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ダニエル・エニス」で75%、次いで「ジャニス・ボイラン」が18%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、75¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に75%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者」は$1.1 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Feb 20, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている12個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「ダニエル・エニス」で75%であり、市場がこの結果に75%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ジャニス・ボイラン」で18%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。