Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against an EU debt downgrade before 2027, driven by recent rating agency affirmations maintaining the European Union's AAA sovereign ratings with stable outlooks—Fitch in February 2026 and Moody's in March 2026—bolstered by structural guarantee mechanisms and zero negative outlooks across five major agencies. High general government debt ratios, projected near 104% of GDP for developed markets by end-2026 per Fitch, remain manageable amid steady net borrowing around 3% of GDP for developed European sovereigns, as forecasted by S&P Global Ratings. New EU fiscal rules support gradual debt stabilization, though France's Aa3 negative outlook from Moody's in April underscores peripheral risks. Key catalysts include Morningstar DBRS and Fitch sovereign review calendars through year-end, alongside Q2 economic data and ECB policy signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2027年までにEU債務格下げ？
2027年までにEU債務格下げ？
はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against an EU debt downgrade before 2027, driven by recent rating agency affirmations maintaining the European Union's AAA sovereign ratings with stable outlooks—Fitch in February 2026 and Moody's in March 2026—bolstered by structural guarantee mechanisms and zero negative outlooks across five major agencies. High general government debt ratios, projected near 104% of GDP for developed markets by end-2026 per Fitch, remain manageable amid steady net borrowing around 3% of GDP for developed European sovereigns, as forecasted by S&P Global Ratings. New EU fiscal rules support gradual debt stabilization, though France's Aa3 negative outlook from Moody's in April underscores peripheral risks. Key catalysts include Morningstar DBRS and Fitch sovereign review calendars through year-end, alongside Q2 economic data and ECB policy signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ET
音量
$1,372終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against an EU debt downgrade before 2027, driven by recent rating agency affirmations maintaining the European Union's AAA sovereign ratings with stable outlooks—Fitch in February 2026 and Moody's in March 2026—bolstered by structural guarantee mechanisms and zero negative outlooks across five major agencies. High general government debt ratios, projected near 104% of GDP for developed markets by end-2026 per Fitch, remain manageable amid steady net borrowing around 3% of GDP for developed European sovereigns, as forecasted by S&P Global Ratings. New EU fiscal rules support gradual debt stabilization, though France's Aa3 negative outlook from Moody's in April underscores peripheral risks. Key catalysts include Morningstar DBRS and Fitch sovereign review calendars through year-end, alongside Q2 economic data and ECB policy signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$1,372終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against an EU debt downgrade before 2027, driven by recent rating agency affirmations maintaining the European Union's AAA sovereign ratings with stable outlooks—Fitch in February 2026 and Moody's in March 2026—bolstered by structural guarantee mechanisms and zero negative outlooks across five major agencies. High general government debt ratios, projected near 104% of GDP for developed markets by end-2026 per Fitch, remain manageable amid steady net borrowing around 3% of GDP for developed European sovereigns, as forecasted by S&P Global Ratings. New EU fiscal rules support gradual debt stabilization, though France's Aa3 negative outlook from Moody's in April underscores peripheral risks. Key catalysts include Morningstar DBRS and Fitch sovereign review calendars through year-end, alongside Q2 economic data and ECB policy signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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