Trader consensus on the January 2027 FOMC decision assigns a 61.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate, reflecting the Fed’s current 3.50–3.75% target range and recent communications emphasizing data dependence. Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year, resilient economic growth, and stable labor market conditions have supported this hold stance across multiple 2026 meetings, including the divided 9-3 July vote. Futures markets price modest further tightening by late 2026, elevating the 19.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike while limiting downside probabilities. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases, which could shift expectations if inflation moderates or geopolitical supply shocks intensify.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No change 62%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 6.3%
$34,028 Vol.
$34,028 Vol.
2027/01/27
50+ bps decrease
6%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
62%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
20%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
2%
No change 62%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 6.3%
$34,028 Vol.
$34,028 Vol.
2027/01/27
50+ bps decrease
$3,376 Vol.
6%
25 bps decrease
$7,417 Vol.
15%
No change
$13,728 Vol.
62%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$8,045 Vol.
20%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
$1,463 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on the January 2027 FOMC decision assigns a 61.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate, reflecting the Fed’s current 3.50–3.75% target range and recent communications emphasizing data dependence. Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year, resilient economic growth, and stable labor market conditions have supported this hold stance across multiple 2026 meetings, including the divided 9-3 July vote. Futures markets price modest further tightening by late 2026, elevating the 19.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike while limiting downside probabilities. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases, which could shift expectations if inflation moderates or geopolitical supply shocks intensify.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
音量
$34,028終了日
2027/01/27マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on the January 2027 FOMC decision assigns a 61.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate, reflecting the Fed’s current 3.50–3.75% target range and recent communications emphasizing data dependence. Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year, resilient economic growth, and stable labor market conditions have supported this hold stance across multiple 2026 meetings, including the divided 9-3 July vote. Futures markets price modest further tightening by late 2026, elevating the 19.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike while limiting downside probabilities. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases, which could shift expectations if inflation moderates or geopolitical supply shocks intensify.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$34,028終了日
2027/01/27マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the January 2027 FOMC decision assigns a 61.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate, reflecting the Fed’s current 3.50–3.75% target range and recent communications emphasizing data dependence. Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year, resilient economic growth, and stable labor market conditions have supported this hold stance across multiple 2026 meetings, including the divided 9-3 July vote. Futures markets price modest further tightening by late 2026, elevating the 19.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike while limiting downside probabilities. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases, which could shift expectations if inflation moderates or geopolitical supply shocks intensify.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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