Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, alongside a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid economic growth, has reinforced trader expectations for unchanged policy at the remaining 2026 FOMC meetings through September. The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% in both June and July, with the July decision featuring a 9-3 split and hawkish dot-plot revisions signaling fewer cuts ahead. Forward-looking fed funds futures and analyst forecasts, including Goldman Sachs projections for initial easing only in 2027, further anchor the 76% implied probability on three consecutive pauses. The September 15-16 meeting remains the key near-term catalyst, with any surprise inflation or labor data potentially shifting the modest 23.5% "Other" odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$744,184 Vol.
$744,184 Vol.
2026/09/16
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
24%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$744,184 Vol.
$744,184 Vol.
2026/09/16
Pause–Pause–Pause
$290,888 Vol.
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$77,145 Vol.
1%
Other
$320,274 Vol.
24%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, alongside a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid economic growth, has reinforced trader expectations for unchanged policy at the remaining 2026 FOMC meetings through September. The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% in both June and July, with the July decision featuring a 9-3 split and hawkish dot-plot revisions signaling fewer cuts ahead. Forward-looking fed funds futures and analyst forecasts, including Goldman Sachs projections for initial easing only in 2027, further anchor the 76% implied probability on three consecutive pauses. The September 15-16 meeting remains the key near-term catalyst, with any surprise inflation or labor data potentially shifting the modest 23.5% "Other" odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
音量
$744,184終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, alongside a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid economic growth, has reinforced trader expectations for unchanged policy at the remaining 2026 FOMC meetings through September. The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% in both June and July, with the July decision featuring a 9-3 split and hawkish dot-plot revisions signaling fewer cuts ahead. Forward-looking fed funds futures and analyst forecasts, including Goldman Sachs projections for initial easing only in 2027, further anchor the 76% implied probability on three consecutive pauses. The September 15-16 meeting remains the key near-term catalyst, with any surprise inflation or labor data potentially shifting the modest 23.5% "Other" odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$744,184終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, alongside a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid economic growth, has reinforced trader expectations for unchanged policy at the remaining 2026 FOMC meetings through September. The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% in both June and July, with the July decision featuring a 9-3 split and hawkish dot-plot revisions signaling fewer cuts ahead. Forward-looking fed funds futures and analyst forecasts, including Goldman Sachs projections for initial easing only in 2027, further anchor the 76% implied probability on three consecutive pauses. The September 15-16 meeting remains the key near-term catalyst, with any surprise inflation or labor data potentially shifting the modest 23.5% "Other" odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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