Latest short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and ensemble models including ECMWF and GFS place Ankara's May 14 high temperature squarely in the 21-22°C range, fueling the razor-thin trader split between those outcomes at 33% and 31% implied probabilities. This positioning reflects a rebound from early May's anomalous cold spell—when peaks dipped to 7°C—now yielding typical mid-May climatology with average highs of 21°C and diurnal ranges of 10-12°C from overnight lows near 12°C. Differentiating factors include uncertainty in afternoon cloud development and southerly wind strength, which could cap heating at 21°C or allow a push to 22°C under clearer skies. MGM hourly updates and Esenboğa Airport observations will sharpen resolution as diurnal maximum approaches.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Ankara on May 14?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 14?
22°C 32.8%
21°C 31%
20°C 17%
23°C 15.3%
新規
$35,034 Vol.
新規
$35,034 Vol.
2026/05/14
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
4%
20°C
17%
21°C
31%
22°C
33%
23°C
15%
24°C
4%
25°C or higher
1%
22°C 32.8%
21°C 31%
20°C 17%
23°C 15.3%
新規
$35,034 Vol.
新規
$35,034 Vol.
2026/05/14
15°C or below
$2,220 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,106 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,154 Vol.
1%
18°C
$5,620 Vol.
1%
19°C
$3,544 Vol.
4%
20°C
$2,926 Vol.
17%
21°C
$2,411 Vol.
31%
22°C
$2,220 Vol.
33%
23°C
$4,601 Vol.
15%
24°C
$4,663 Vol.
4%
25°C or higher
$3,747 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and ensemble models including ECMWF and GFS place Ankara's May 14 high temperature squarely in the 21-22°C range, fueling the razor-thin trader split between those outcomes at 33% and 31% implied probabilities. This positioning reflects a rebound from early May's anomalous cold spell—when peaks dipped to 7°C—now yielding typical mid-May climatology with average highs of 21°C and diurnal ranges of 10-12°C from overnight lows near 12°C. Differentiating factors include uncertainty in afternoon cloud development and southerly wind strength, which could cap heating at 21°C or allow a push to 22°C under clearer skies. MGM hourly updates and Esenboğa Airport observations will sharpen resolution as diurnal maximum approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
音量
$35,034終了日
2026/05/14マーケット開始日
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and ensemble models including ECMWF and GFS place Ankara's May 14 high temperature squarely in the 21-22°C range, fueling the razor-thin trader split between those outcomes at 33% and 31% implied probabilities. This positioning reflects a rebound from early May's anomalous cold spell—when peaks dipped to 7°C—now yielding typical mid-May climatology with average highs of 21°C and diurnal ranges of 10-12°C from overnight lows near 12°C. Differentiating factors include uncertainty in afternoon cloud development and southerly wind strength, which could cap heating at 21°C or allow a push to 22°C under clearer skies. MGM hourly updates and Esenboğa Airport observations will sharpen resolution as diurnal maximum approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$35,034終了日
2026/05/14マーケット開始日
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETLatest short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and ensemble models including ECMWF and GFS place Ankara's May 14 high temperature squarely in the 21-22°C range, fueling the razor-thin trader split between those outcomes at 33% and 31% implied probabilities. This positioning reflects a rebound from early May's anomalous cold spell—when peaks dipped to 7°C—now yielding typical mid-May climatology with average highs of 21°C and diurnal ranges of 10-12°C from overnight lows near 12°C. Differentiating factors include uncertainty in afternoon cloud development and southerly wind strength, which could cap heating at 21°C or allow a push to 22°C under clearer skies. MGM hourly updates and Esenboğa Airport observations will sharpen resolution as diurnal maximum approaches.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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