Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 27°C in Tel Aviv on May 13, aligned with the latest Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) forecast of 14–26°C under partly cloudy skies following a multi-day heat wave, as seasonal norms reassert amid a significant temperature drop. NOAA global hourly observations at the official Tel Aviv station—Polymarket's resolution source—support this positioning, with morning readings building toward a midday peak near 27°C per model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies boosting solar heating to 28°C or stronger sea breezes capping it at 26°C, though current atmospheric conditions favor the trader-backed outcome ahead of afternoon updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 13?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 13?
27°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$82,204 Vol.
$82,204 Vol.
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$82,204 Vol.
$82,204 Vol.
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 11, 2026, 1:20 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 27°C in Tel Aviv on May 13, aligned with the latest Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) forecast of 14–26°C under partly cloudy skies following a multi-day heat wave, as seasonal norms reassert amid a significant temperature drop. NOAA global hourly observations at the official Tel Aviv station—Polymarket's resolution source—support this positioning, with morning readings building toward a midday peak near 27°C per model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies boosting solar heating to 28°C or stronger sea breezes capping it at 26°C, though current atmospheric conditions favor the trader-backed outcome ahead of afternoon updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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