Official meteorological observations from Spain's State Meteorological Agency confirmed a maximum temperature of 20°C in Madrid on May 16, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome. This reading aligns with mid-May climatological norms for the Iberian Peninsula, where spring warming patterns typically produce daily highs in the 18–22°C range under stable high-pressure systems. Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had projected minimal deviation from these baselines in the 48 hours prior, with no significant heat advection or urban heat-island amplification observed. While final official reports can occasionally undergo minor revisions for instrumentation checks, historical precedent shows such adjustments rarely exceed 1°C after initial publication, leaving little realistic scope for market-moving changes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$85,984 Vol.
$85,984 Vol.
2026/05/16
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$85,984 Vol.
$85,984 Vol.
2026/05/16
15°C or below
$4,487 Vol.
No
16°C
$5,414 Vol.
No
17°C
$8,090 Vol.
No
18°C
$8,511 Vol.
No
19°C
$9,999 Vol.
No
20°C
$11,262 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$12,254 Vol.
No
22°C
$10,385 Vol.
No
23°C
$6,885 Vol.
No
24°C
$6,168 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$2,529 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official meteorological observations from Spain's State Meteorological Agency confirmed a maximum temperature of 20°C in Madrid on May 16, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome. This reading aligns with mid-May climatological norms for the Iberian Peninsula, where spring warming patterns typically produce daily highs in the 18–22°C range under stable high-pressure systems. Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had projected minimal deviation from these baselines in the 48 hours prior, with no significant heat advection or urban heat-island amplification observed. While final official reports can occasionally undergo minor revisions for instrumentation checks, historical precedent shows such adjustments rarely exceed 1°C after initial publication, leaving little realistic scope for market-moving changes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
音量
$85,984終了日
2026/05/16マーケット開始日
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official meteorological observations from Spain's State Meteorological Agency confirmed a maximum temperature of 20°C in Madrid on May 16, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome. This reading aligns with mid-May climatological norms for the Iberian Peninsula, where spring warming patterns typically produce daily highs in the 18–22°C range under stable high-pressure systems. Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had projected minimal deviation from these baselines in the 48 hours prior, with no significant heat advection or urban heat-island amplification observed. While final official reports can occasionally undergo minor revisions for instrumentation checks, historical precedent shows such adjustments rarely exceed 1°C after initial publication, leaving little realistic scope for market-moving changes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$85,984終了日
2026/05/16マーケット開始日
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
Official meteorological observations from Spain's State Meteorological Agency confirmed a maximum temperature of 20°C in Madrid on May 16, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome. This reading aligns with mid-May climatological norms for the Iberian Peninsula, where spring warming patterns typically produce daily highs in the 18–22°C range under stable high-pressure systems. Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had projected minimal deviation from these baselines in the 48 hours prior, with no significant heat advection or urban heat-island amplification observed. While final official reports can occasionally undergo minor revisions for instrumentation checks, historical precedent shows such adjustments rarely exceed 1°C after initial publication, leaving little realistic scope for market-moving changes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問