Latest forecast guidance from the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and European models shows a stable high-pressure ridge over central Spain, supporting a daytime maximum near 22°C in Madrid on May 17 under mostly clear skies and light northerly winds. This aligns with climatological averages for mid-May and explains the market’s overwhelming 97.5% implied probability for 22°C. Traders are monitoring real-time observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, where afternoon readings will determine resolution. A sudden increase in cloud cover or stronger winds could keep temperatures at or below 21°C, while unexpected clear conditions and enhanced solar heating remain the only realistic paths to 23°C or higher before sunset.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のマドリードの最高気温は?
22°C 98.0%
23°C 1.3%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$46,219 Vol.
$46,219 Vol.
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
98%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 98.0%
23°C 1.3%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$46,219 Vol.
$46,219 Vol.
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
98%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest forecast guidance from the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and European models shows a stable high-pressure ridge over central Spain, supporting a daytime maximum near 22°C in Madrid on May 17 under mostly clear skies and light northerly winds. This aligns with climatological averages for mid-May and explains the market’s overwhelming 97.5% implied probability for 22°C. Traders are monitoring real-time observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, where afternoon readings will determine resolution. A sudden increase in cloud cover or stronger winds could keep temperatures at or below 21°C, while unexpected clear conditions and enhanced solar heating remain the only realistic paths to 23°C or higher before sunset.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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