Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and AEMET place Madrid’s maximum temperature on May 17 in a narrow 22–23 °C range under moderate westerly flow and broken cloud cover. This tight clustering explains why traders have concentrated nearly 98 % of probability on those two outcomes, with 23 °C edging ahead on slightly higher model consensus for peak afternoon insolation. Key differentiating factors include small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing depth and the timing of any late-day cloud build-up, both of which can shift the daily high by 1 °C. Official AEMET station observations at the close of the diurnal cycle will resolve the market.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のマドリードの最高気温は?
22°C 65%
23°C 30%
24°C 5.7%
25°C <1%
$38,112 Vol.
$38,112 Vol.
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
65%
23°C
24%
24°C
6%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 65%
23°C 30%
24°C 5.7%
25°C <1%
$38,112 Vol.
$38,112 Vol.
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
65%
23°C
24%
24°C
6%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and AEMET place Madrid’s maximum temperature on May 17 in a narrow 22–23 °C range under moderate westerly flow and broken cloud cover. This tight clustering explains why traders have concentrated nearly 98 % of probability on those two outcomes, with 23 °C edging ahead on slightly higher model consensus for peak afternoon insolation. Key differentiating factors include small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing depth and the timing of any late-day cloud build-up, both of which can shift the daily high by 1 °C. Official AEMET station observations at the close of the diurnal cycle will resolve the market.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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