Recent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and AEMET indicate clear skies and southerly flow will drive Madrid’s maximum temperature on September 15 to 35–36 °C, well above the 26.6 °C climatological average but below the 34.3 °C all-time record. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread around this range, with peak readings expected mid-to-late afternoon. Market-implied odds align closely, assigning 59 % probability to 36 °C and 28 % to 35 °C, reflecting traders’ assessment of model consensus and low risk of deviation. Updated runs tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月15日のマドリードの最高気温は？
9月15日のマドリードの最高気温は？
36℃ 59%
35°C 28%
37°C 11%
34℃ 3%
新規
新規
2026/09/15
31℃以下
<1%
32℃
1%
33℃
1%
34℃
3%
35°C
28%
36℃
59%
37°C
11%
38°C
1%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41℃以上
<1%
36℃ 59%
35°C 28%
37°C 11%
34℃ 3%
新規
新規
2026/09/15
31℃以下
$128 Vol.
<1%
32℃
$179 Vol.
1%
33℃
$215 Vol.
1%
34℃
$401 Vol.
3%
35°C
$1,842 Vol.
28%
36℃
$1,353 Vol.
59%
37°C
$1,537 Vol.
11%
38°C
$175 Vol.
1%
39°C
$171 Vol.
1%
40°C
$124 Vol.
<1%
41℃以上
$179 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and AEMET indicate clear skies and southerly flow will drive Madrid’s maximum temperature on September 15 to 35–36 °C, well above the 26.6 °C climatological average but below the 34.3 °C all-time record. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread around this range, with peak readings expected mid-to-late afternoon. Market-implied odds align closely, assigning 59 % probability to 36 °C and 28 % to 35 °C, reflecting traders’ assessment of model consensus and low risk of deviation. Updated runs tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
音量
$6,304終了日
2026/09/15マーケット開始日
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and AEMET indicate clear skies and southerly flow will drive Madrid’s maximum temperature on September 15 to 35–36 °C, well above the 26.6 °C climatological average but below the 34.3 °C all-time record. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread around this range, with peak readings expected mid-to-late afternoon. Market-implied odds align closely, assigning 59 % probability to 36 °C and 28 % to 35 °C, reflecting traders’ assessment of model consensus and low risk of deviation. Updated runs tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$6,304終了日
2026/09/15マーケット開始日
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETRecent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and AEMET indicate clear skies and southerly flow will drive Madrid’s maximum temperature on September 15 to 35–36 °C, well above the 26.6 °C climatological average but below the 34.3 °C all-time record. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread around this range, with peak readings expected mid-to-late afternoon. Market-implied odds align closely, assigning 59 % probability to 36 °C and 28 % to 35 °C, reflecting traders’ assessment of model consensus and low risk of deviation. Updated runs tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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