Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and regional ensembles, indicate a highest temperature in Chengdu on September 16 most likely between 23–25°C amid widespread cloud cover, light rain, and moderate northeasterly flow that limits daytime heating. Persistent moisture from the Sichuan basin’s autumn transition keeps surface temperatures suppressed relative to clearer-sky climatology, though partial afternoon clearing in some solutions allows brief warming toward 25°C. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow spread and model consensus, with lower probabilities assigned to outliers like 26°C or below 23°C that would require significant forecast shifts in timing or intensity of precipitation. Final high-resolution updates and official station observations will resolve the market.