Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Shanghai high of 25°C at 32% implied probability for May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts showing persistent overcast skies and highs in the mid-20s°C amid southerly flows carrying humid air. Recent observations over the past 48 hours confirm mild conditions, with May 13 highs around 24°C under cloudy cover that limited solar heating, aligning with historical May averages of 24–25°C while curbing urban heat island amplification. High uncertainty stems from model ensemble spreads—ECMWF and GFS variants projecting 23–28°C based on cloud thickness, wind shear, and boundary layer stability—with 24°C (20%), 23°C (18%), and 26°C (17%) close behind. Key variables include afternoon cloud breaks potentially boosting peaks above 26°C or sustained overcast capping below 23°C; final resolution hinges on official station readings from Xujiahui Observatory by midnight UTC.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 14?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 14?
25°C 30%
24°C 20%
23°C 18.4%
26°C 16%
新規
$45,107 Vol.
新規
$45,107 Vol.
2026/05/14
22°C or below
9%
23°C
18%
24°C
20%
25°C
30%
26°C
16%
27°C
8%
28°C
3%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
25°C 30%
24°C 20%
23°C 18.4%
26°C 16%
新規
$45,107 Vol.
新規
$45,107 Vol.
2026/05/14
22°C or below
$7,113 Vol.
9%
23°C
$4,291 Vol.
18%
24°C
$3,031 Vol.
20%
25°C
$2,495 Vol.
30%
26°C
$2,855 Vol.
16%
27°C
$4,333 Vol.
8%
28°C
$5,951 Vol.
3%
29°C
$7,515 Vol.
1%
30°C
$4,245 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$2,322 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$1,021 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Shanghai high of 25°C at 32% implied probability for May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts showing persistent overcast skies and highs in the mid-20s°C amid southerly flows carrying humid air. Recent observations over the past 48 hours confirm mild conditions, with May 13 highs around 24°C under cloudy cover that limited solar heating, aligning with historical May averages of 24–25°C while curbing urban heat island amplification. High uncertainty stems from model ensemble spreads—ECMWF and GFS variants projecting 23–28°C based on cloud thickness, wind shear, and boundary layer stability—with 24°C (20%), 23°C (18%), and 26°C (17%) close behind. Key variables include afternoon cloud breaks potentially boosting peaks above 26°C or sustained overcast capping below 23°C; final resolution hinges on official station readings from Xujiahui Observatory by midnight UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 12, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
音量
$45,107終了日
2026/05/14マーケット開始日
May 12, 2026, 12:22 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Shanghai high of 25°C at 32% implied probability for May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts showing persistent overcast skies and highs in the mid-20s°C amid southerly flows carrying humid air. Recent observations over the past 48 hours confirm mild conditions, with May 13 highs around 24°C under cloudy cover that limited solar heating, aligning with historical May averages of 24–25°C while curbing urban heat island amplification. High uncertainty stems from model ensemble spreads—ECMWF and GFS variants projecting 23–28°C based on cloud thickness, wind shear, and boundary layer stability—with 24°C (20%), 23°C (18%), and 26°C (17%) close behind. Key variables include afternoon cloud breaks potentially boosting peaks above 26°C or sustained overcast capping below 23°C; final resolution hinges on official station readings from Xujiahui Observatory by midnight UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$45,107終了日
2026/05/14マーケット開始日
May 12, 2026, 12:22 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket favors a Shanghai high of 25°C at 32% implied probability for May 14, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts showing persistent overcast skies and highs in the mid-20s°C amid southerly flows carrying humid air. Recent observations over the past 48 hours confirm mild conditions, with May 13 highs around 24°C under cloudy cover that limited solar heating, aligning with historical May averages of 24–25°C while curbing urban heat island amplification. High uncertainty stems from model ensemble spreads—ECMWF and GFS variants projecting 23–28°C based on cloud thickness, wind shear, and boundary layer stability—with 24°C (20%), 23°C (18%), and 26°C (17%) close behind. Key variables include afternoon cloud breaks potentially boosting peaks above 26°C or sustained overcast capping below 23°C; final resolution hinges on official station readings from Xujiahui Observatory by midnight UTC.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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