Official observational data from the Warsaw Chopin Airport meteorological station, Poland's primary reference for such markets, recorded a maximum temperature of 12°C on May 13, locking in trader consensus at 100% implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) frost warnings during a mid-May cold snap—"zimni ogrodnicy"—featuring northerly winds, persistent cloud cover, and overnight lows near freezing that capped daytime highs. Model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS converged on subdued temperatures in final advisories, reflecting upper-level troughing over Central Europe. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-processing revisions for sensor anomalies, though quality-controlled data from established stations rarely shifts beyond 0.5°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 13?
12°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$65,355 Vol.
$65,355 Vol.
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$65,355 Vol.
$65,355 Vol.
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 11, 2026, 12:44 AM ET
提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Official observational data from the Warsaw Chopin Airport meteorological station, Poland's primary reference for such markets, recorded a maximum temperature of 12°C on May 13, locking in trader consensus at 100% implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) frost warnings during a mid-May cold snap—"zimni ogrodnicy"—featuring northerly winds, persistent cloud cover, and overnight lows near freezing that capped daytime highs. Model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS converged on subdued temperatures in final advisories, reflecting upper-level troughing over Central Europe. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-processing revisions for sensor anomalies, though quality-controlled data from established stations rarely shifts beyond 0.5°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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