Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 4-9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide from May 11-17, with 6 (24.5%) and 7 (21%) leading amid genuine uncertainty from the stochastic nature of global seismicity. As of May 13, USGS records show just one such event since the period began, a slower-than-average start against the historical baseline of roughly 9 per week derived from 2000-2021 data (about 500 annually for M≥5.5 via Gutenberg-Richter scaling from 1,566 M5-5.9 events). Differentiation stems from Poisson-distributed variability, potential clustering along active subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, and absence of ongoing aftershock sequences or swarms; watch USGS real-time catalog updates through May 17 for shifts in daily tallies.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
6 29%
7 18%
>9 18%
4 17%
$19,154 Vol.
$19,154 Vol.
2026/05/17
≤3
6%
4
17%
5
12%
6
29%
7
18%
8
14%
9
16%
>9
18%
6 29%
7 18%
>9 18%
4 17%
$19,154 Vol.
$19,154 Vol.
2026/05/17
≤3
$5,664 Vol.
6%
4
$827 Vol.
17%
5
$4,451 Vol.
12%
6
$499 Vol.
29%
7
$314 Vol.
18%
8
$362 Vol.
14%
9
$359 Vol.
16%
>9
$6,678 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 4-9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide from May 11-17, with 6 (24.5%) and 7 (21%) leading amid genuine uncertainty from the stochastic nature of global seismicity. As of May 13, USGS records show just one such event since the period began, a slower-than-average start against the historical baseline of roughly 9 per week derived from 2000-2021 data (about 500 annually for M≥5.5 via Gutenberg-Richter scaling from 1,566 M5-5.9 events). Differentiation stems from Poisson-distributed variability, potential clustering along active subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, and absence of ongoing aftershock sequences or swarms; watch USGS real-time catalog updates through May 17 for shifts in daily tallies.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日： May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
音量
$19,154終了日
2026/05/17マーケット開始日
May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 4-9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide from May 11-17, with 6 (24.5%) and 7 (21%) leading amid genuine uncertainty from the stochastic nature of global seismicity. As of May 13, USGS records show just one such event since the period began, a slower-than-average start against the historical baseline of roughly 9 per week derived from 2000-2021 data (about 500 annually for M≥5.5 via Gutenberg-Richter scaling from 1,566 M5-5.9 events). Differentiation stems from Poisson-distributed variability, potential clustering along active subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, and absence of ongoing aftershock sequences or swarms; watch USGS real-time catalog updates through May 17 for shifts in daily tallies.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
音量
$19,154終了日
2026/05/17マーケット開始日
May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 4-9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide from May 11-17, with 6 (24.5%) and 7 (21%) leading amid genuine uncertainty from the stochastic nature of global seismicity. As of May 13, USGS records show just one such event since the period began, a slower-than-average start against the historical baseline of roughly 9 per week derived from 2000-2021 data (about 500 annually for M≥5.5 via Gutenberg-Richter scaling from 1,566 M5-5.9 events). Differentiation stems from Poisson-distributed variability, potential clustering along active subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, and absence of ongoing aftershock sequences or swarms; watch USGS real-time catalog updates through May 17 for shifts in daily tallies.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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