US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm that recent US-Israeli airstrikes caused limited damage to Iran's nuclear program, leaving the timeline for weaponization unchanged at 9-12 months despite an intact stockpile of highly enriched uranium. IAEA reports highlight ongoing verification challenges, including restricted access to sites like Isfahan, but find no evidence of active weapon assembly or testing. Diplomatic signals, including potential Vienna talks on a nuclear deal before 2027, further temper escalation risks. Trader consensus at 91% "No" reflects this extended breakout timeline—pushing any potential bomb past year-end—though late breakthroughs in enrichment or covert advances could shift odds amid regional tensions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$602,029 Vol.
$602,029 Vol.
はい
$602,029 Vol.
$602,029 Vol.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm that recent US-Israeli airstrikes caused limited damage to Iran's nuclear program, leaving the timeline for weaponization unchanged at 9-12 months despite an intact stockpile of highly enriched uranium. IAEA reports highlight ongoing verification challenges, including restricted access to sites like Isfahan, but find no evidence of active weapon assembly or testing. Diplomatic signals, including potential Vienna talks on a nuclear deal before 2027, further temper escalation risks. Trader consensus at 91% "No" reflects this extended breakout timeline—pushing any potential bomb past year-end—though late breakthroughs in enrichment or covert advances could shift odds amid regional tensions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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