Recent US and Israeli airstrikes have substantially degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure and weaponization sites, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and creating major technical and detection barriers according to nuclear experts. IAEA assessments and ongoing verification demands, alongside preliminary ceasefire talks, underscore continued international monitoring that limits rapid reconstitution. With only months remaining until 2027, these setbacks make breakout timelines extend well beyond the resolution window, underpinning trader consensus around a 95% probability against acquisition. Scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected parallel facilities, accelerated rebuilding if strikes cease entirely, or major diplomatic breakdowns removing external constraints.