Trader consensus slightly favors Latvia First (LPV) at 32% implied probability to secure the most seats in Latvia's proportional representation Saeima election by October 3, 2026, narrowly ahead of incumbent New Unity (JV) at 30.5%, reflecting early April polls from SKDS and Gemius where LPV polled 14-15% amid voter frustration with government scandals, including the Defence Minister's resignation and Progressives' (PRO) coalition exit threats despite their 14% support. The race stays tight due to a fragmented field—National Alliance (NA) at 14.5%, PRO at 18.7%—high undecideds near 40%, and the 5% threshold amplifying small swings; incumbency aids JV's resilience, while LPV's populist appeal drives gains. Separation could arise from leader debates, economic updates, or coalition signals in coming months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日JV 31%
LPV 30%
PRO 18.4%
NA 18%
$73,106 Vol.
$73,106 Vol.
2026/10/03
JV
31%
LPV
30%
PRO
18%
NA
18%
SV
8%
AS
6%
ST！
4%
S
1%
ZZS
<1%
JV 31%
LPV 30%
PRO 18.4%
NA 18%
$73,106 Vol.
$73,106 Vol.
2026/10/03
JV
$5,667 Vol.
31%
LPV
$2,672 Vol.
30%
PRO
$10,308 Vol.
18%
NA
$2,755 Vol.
18%
SV
$1,044 Vol.
8%
AS
$878 Vol.
6%
ST！
$672 Vol.
4%
S
$667 Vol.
1%
ZZS
$48,444 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).Trader consensus slightly favors Latvia First (LPV) at 32% implied probability to secure the most seats in Latvia's proportional representation Saeima election by October 3, 2026, narrowly ahead of incumbent New Unity (JV) at 30.5%, reflecting early April polls from SKDS and Gemius where LPV polled 14-15% amid voter frustration with government scandals, including the Defence Minister's resignation and Progressives' (PRO) coalition exit threats despite their 14% support. The race stays tight due to a fragmented field—National Alliance (NA) at 14.5%, PRO at 18.7%—high undecideds near 40%, and the 5% threshold amplifying small swings; incumbency aids JV's resilience, while LPV's populist appeal drives gains. Separation could arise from leader debates, economic updates, or coalition signals in coming months.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 5:21 PM ET
音量
$73,106終了日
2026/10/03マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 5:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).Trader consensus slightly favors Latvia First (LPV) at 32% implied probability to secure the most seats in Latvia's proportional representation Saeima election by October 3, 2026, narrowly ahead of incumbent New Unity (JV) at 30.5%, reflecting early April polls from SKDS and Gemius where LPV polled 14-15% amid voter frustration with government scandals, including the Defence Minister's resignation and Progressives' (PRO) coalition exit threats despite their 14% support. The race stays tight due to a fragmented field—National Alliance (NA) at 14.5%, PRO at 18.7%—high undecideds near 40%, and the 5% threshold amplifying small swings; incumbency aids JV's resilience, while LPV's populist appeal drives gains. Separation could arise from leader debates, economic updates, or coalition signals in coming months.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).
音量
$73,106終了日
2026/10/03マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 5:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus slightly favors Latvia First (LPV) at 32% implied probability to secure the most seats in Latvia's proportional representation Saeima election by October 3, 2026, narrowly ahead of incumbent New Unity (JV) at 30.5%, reflecting early April polls from SKDS and Gemius where LPV polled 14-15% amid voter frustration with government scandals, including the Defence Minister's resignation and Progressives' (PRO) coalition exit threats despite their 14% support. The race stays tight due to a fragmented field—National Alliance (NA) at 14.5%, PRO at 18.7%—high undecideds near 40%, and the 5% threshold amplifying small swings; incumbency aids JV's resilience, while LPV's populist appeal drives gains. Separation could arise from leader debates, economic updates, or coalition signals in coming months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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