Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models (including ECMWF and GFS runs) show Chengdu overnight lows near 25–26°C on August 25, driven by persistent high humidity, scattered thunderstorms, and cloud cover typical of the post-Fu transition period. These conditions limit radiative cooling while preventing extreme daytime heat from carrying over, keeping minimum temperatures in a narrow mid-20s band. Market-implied odds remain split between sub-20°C and 30°C+ outcomes because traders price in potential model divergence on storm timing and intensity, which can shift boundary-layer temperatures by several degrees. Updated runs ahead of the 25th, along with any new convective activity, will likely tighten consensus around the 25–26°C resolution threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月25日の成都の最低気温は？
8月25日の成都の最低気温は？
20°C or below 80%
30°C or higher 80%
21°C 41%
26°C 30%
新規
新規
2026/08/25
20°C or below
80%
21°C
41%
22°C
11%
23°C
22%
24°C
22%
25°C
28%
26°C
30%
27°C
26%
28°C
27%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
80%
20°C or below 80%
30°C or higher 80%
21°C 41%
26°C 30%
新規
新規
2026/08/25
20°C or below
$145 Vol.
80%
21°C
$5 Vol.
41%
22°C
$0 Vol.
11%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$0 Vol.
22%
25°C
$0 Vol.
28%
26°C
$0 Vol.
30%
27°C
$0 Vol.
26%
28°C
$0 Vol.
27%
29°C
$5 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$70 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models (including ECMWF and GFS runs) show Chengdu overnight lows near 25–26°C on August 25, driven by persistent high humidity, scattered thunderstorms, and cloud cover typical of the post-Fu transition period. These conditions limit radiative cooling while preventing extreme daytime heat from carrying over, keeping minimum temperatures in a narrow mid-20s band. Market-implied odds remain split between sub-20°C and 30°C+ outcomes because traders price in potential model divergence on storm timing and intensity, which can shift boundary-layer temperatures by several degrees. Updated runs ahead of the 25th, along with any new convective activity, will likely tighten consensus around the 25–26°C resolution threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$225終了日
2026/08/25マーケット開始日
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models (including ECMWF and GFS runs) show Chengdu overnight lows near 25–26°C on August 25, driven by persistent high humidity, scattered thunderstorms, and cloud cover typical of the post-Fu transition period. These conditions limit radiative cooling while preventing extreme daytime heat from carrying over, keeping minimum temperatures in a narrow mid-20s band. Market-implied odds remain split between sub-20°C and 30°C+ outcomes because traders price in potential model divergence on storm timing and intensity, which can shift boundary-layer temperatures by several degrees. Updated runs ahead of the 25th, along with any new convective activity, will likely tighten consensus around the 25–26°C resolution threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$225終了日
2026/08/25マーケット開始日
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models (including ECMWF and GFS runs) show Chengdu overnight lows near 25–26°C on August 25, driven by persistent high humidity, scattered thunderstorms, and cloud cover typical of the post-Fu transition period. These conditions limit radiative cooling while preventing extreme daytime heat from carrying over, keeping minimum temperatures in a narrow mid-20s band. Market-implied odds remain split between sub-20°C and 30°C+ outcomes because traders price in potential model divergence on storm timing and intensity, which can shift boundary-layer temperatures by several degrees. Updated runs ahead of the 25th, along with any new convective activity, will likely tighten consensus around the 25–26°C resolution threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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