Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 6-8°C for London's lowest temperature on May 14, reflecting latest Met Office guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting nocturnal minimums in this range amid persistent low-pressure influence. Recent observations from May 10-12 show below-average lows of 4-6°C under showery conditions and light northerly winds, establishing a cool mid-May pattern cooler than the 7-11°C climatological baseline at Heathrow. Key differentiators include overnight cloud cover—persistent stratus could cap cooling at 8°C—versus clearer skies promoting radiative cooling toward 6°C, with light winds amplifying uncertainty. Resolution draws from Wunderground's official London record; watch Met Office's twice-daily updates and model refreshes for shifts ahead of the May 13-14 night.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月14日のロンドンの最低気温は?
5月14日のロンドンの最低気温は?
7°C 36%
6°C 26%
8°C 20%
5°C 13%
1℃以下
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
1%
4℃
1%
5°C
13%
6°C
28%
7°C
36%
8°C
20%
9°C
2%
10°C
<1%
11°C以上
<1%
7°C 36%
6°C 26%
8°C 20%
5°C 13%
1℃以下
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
1%
4℃
1%
5°C
13%
6°C
28%
7°C
36%
8°C
20%
9°C
2%
10°C
<1%
11°C以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 6-8°C for London's lowest temperature on May 14, reflecting latest Met Office guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting nocturnal minimums in this range amid persistent low-pressure influence. Recent observations from May 10-12 show below-average lows of 4-6°C under showery conditions and light northerly winds, establishing a cool mid-May pattern cooler than the 7-11°C climatological baseline at Heathrow. Key differentiators include overnight cloud cover—persistent stratus could cap cooling at 8°C—versus clearer skies promoting radiative cooling toward 6°C, with light winds amplifying uncertainty. Resolution draws from Wunderground's official London record; watch Met Office's twice-daily updates and model refreshes for shifts ahead of the May 13-14 night.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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