The Met Office’s latest forecast drives the overwhelming 99.6% market-implied probability for a 7°C minimum in London on May 16, projecting an early-morning low under persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5–9 mph that suppress radiative cooling. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where typical overnight minima hover near 8°C, while London’s urban heat island effect consistently elevates readings 1–2°C above rural stations like Heathrow. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows limited spread around 6–8°C, confirming the narrow window for deviation. Clearer skies or stronger boundary-layer mixing could allow temperatures to dip to 6°C, but current observations and model consensus indicate minimal likelihood of such shifts before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月16日のロンドンの最低気温は?
7°C 99.6%
4℃ <1%
5℃ <1%
6℃ <1%
$22,407 Vol.
$22,407 Vol.
0℃以下
<1%
1℃
<1%
2°C
<1%
3℃
<1%
4℃
1%
5℃
<1%
6℃
<1%
7°C
100%
8℃
<1%
9°C
<1%
10℃以上
<1%
7°C 99.6%
4℃ <1%
5℃ <1%
6℃ <1%
$22,407 Vol.
$22,407 Vol.
0℃以下
<1%
1℃
<1%
2°C
<1%
3℃
<1%
4℃
1%
5℃
<1%
6℃
<1%
7°C
100%
8℃
<1%
9°C
<1%
10℃以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The Met Office’s latest forecast drives the overwhelming 99.6% market-implied probability for a 7°C minimum in London on May 16, projecting an early-morning low under persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5–9 mph that suppress radiative cooling. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where typical overnight minima hover near 8°C, while London’s urban heat island effect consistently elevates readings 1–2°C above rural stations like Heathrow. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows limited spread around 6–8°C, confirming the narrow window for deviation. Clearer skies or stronger boundary-layer mixing could allow temperatures to dip to 6°C, but current observations and model consensus indicate minimal likelihood of such shifts before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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