Minnesota's 4th congressional district, centered on St. Paul and Ramsey County, maintains a strong Democratic lean with a Cook PVI around D+18 and consistent results favoring the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. Incumbent Betty McCollum secured renomination in the August 11, 2026, primary with roughly 86 percent of the vote against a minor challenger, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom emerged from a low-turnout primary. All major rating firms classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic based on historical margins, including McCollum's 68 percent share in 2024, established fundraising, and organizational advantages. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 94.5 percent to reflect these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling shifts. A national Republican wave, major scandal, or unforeseen candidate withdrawal could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability events given the district's baseline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$22,262 Vol.
$22,262 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$22,262 Vol.
$22,262 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$3,902 Vol.
95%
共和党
$18,361 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 4th congressional district, centered on St. Paul and Ramsey County, maintains a strong Democratic lean with a Cook PVI around D+18 and consistent results favoring the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. Incumbent Betty McCollum secured renomination in the August 11, 2026, primary with roughly 86 percent of the vote against a minor challenger, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom emerged from a low-turnout primary. All major rating firms classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic based on historical margins, including McCollum's 68 percent share in 2024, established fundraising, and organizational advantages. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 94.5 percent to reflect these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling shifts. A national Republican wave, major scandal, or unforeseen candidate withdrawal could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability events given the district's baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$22,262終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 4th congressional district, centered on St. Paul and Ramsey County, maintains a strong Democratic lean with a Cook PVI around D+18 and consistent results favoring the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. Incumbent Betty McCollum secured renomination in the August 11, 2026, primary with roughly 86 percent of the vote against a minor challenger, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom emerged from a low-turnout primary. All major rating firms classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic based on historical margins, including McCollum's 68 percent share in 2024, established fundraising, and organizational advantages. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 94.5 percent to reflect these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling shifts. A national Republican wave, major scandal, or unforeseen candidate withdrawal could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability events given the district's baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$22,262終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's 4th congressional district, centered on St. Paul and Ramsey County, maintains a strong Democratic lean with a Cook PVI around D+18 and consistent results favoring the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. Incumbent Betty McCollum secured renomination in the August 11, 2026, primary with roughly 86 percent of the vote against a minor challenger, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom emerged from a low-turnout primary. All major rating firms classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic based on historical margins, including McCollum's 68 percent share in 2024, established fundraising, and organizational advantages. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 94.5 percent to reflect these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling shifts. A national Republican wave, major scandal, or unforeseen candidate withdrawal could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability events given the district's baseline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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