The NY-14 district’s heavy Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly D+50 and consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner. Incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secured the nomination with 86.9% in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary and faces Republican Diamant Hysenaj in the November 3 general election. Traders price the outcome on the combination of structural partisanship, incumbency advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure in the Queens-Bronx district. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health issue, or national political realignment large enough to overcome the district’s baseline lean, none of which have materialized in the current cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$43,272 Vol.
$43,272 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$43,272 Vol.
$43,272 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$29,734 Vol.
95%
共和党
$13,538 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-14 district’s heavy Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly D+50 and consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner. Incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secured the nomination with 86.9% in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary and faces Republican Diamant Hysenaj in the November 3 general election. Traders price the outcome on the combination of structural partisanship, incumbency advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure in the Queens-Bronx district. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health issue, or national political realignment large enough to overcome the district’s baseline lean, none of which have materialized in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$43,272終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-14 district’s heavy Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly D+50 and consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner. Incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secured the nomination with 86.9% in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary and faces Republican Diamant Hysenaj in the November 3 general election. Traders price the outcome on the combination of structural partisanship, incumbency advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure in the Queens-Bronx district. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health issue, or national political realignment large enough to overcome the district’s baseline lean, none of which have materialized in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$43,272終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The NY-14 district’s heavy Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly D+50 and consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner. Incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secured the nomination with 86.9% in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary and faces Republican Diamant Hysenaj in the November 3 general election. Traders price the outcome on the combination of structural partisanship, incumbency advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure in the Queens-Bronx district. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health issue, or national political realignment large enough to overcome the district’s baseline lean, none of which have materialized in the current cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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