Putin’s security apparatus and loyal elite network continue to suppress potential internal challenges, with recent FSB arrests of alleged Ukrainian agents and expanded surveillance measures reinforcing regime control. A presidential decree signed August 24 authorizes seizure of underprotected critical infrastructure, enabling further nationalization of private assets amid Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and logistics. Economic strains from fuel shortages and capital outflows have lowered approval ratings, yet the Kremlin is channeling focus into September State Duma elections and managing succession risks through term extensions for key figures like Investigative Committee head Alexander Bastrykin. No verified elite fractures or military unrest have emerged to threaten a coup attempt through late 2026, supporting the market’s strong “No” consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7% 確率
$126,321 Vol.
$126,321 Vol.
2026/12/30
7% 確率
$126,321 Vol.
$126,321 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin’s security apparatus and loyal elite network continue to suppress potential internal challenges, with recent FSB arrests of alleged Ukrainian agents and expanded surveillance measures reinforcing regime control. A presidential decree signed August 24 authorizes seizure of underprotected critical infrastructure, enabling further nationalization of private assets amid Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and logistics. Economic strains from fuel shortages and capital outflows have lowered approval ratings, yet the Kremlin is channeling focus into September State Duma elections and managing succession risks through term extensions for key figures like Investigative Committee head Alexander Bastrykin. No verified elite fractures or military unrest have emerged to threaten a coup attempt through late 2026, supporting the market’s strong “No” consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
音量
$126,321終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin’s security apparatus and loyal elite network continue to suppress potential internal challenges, with recent FSB arrests of alleged Ukrainian agents and expanded surveillance measures reinforcing regime control. A presidential decree signed August 24 authorizes seizure of underprotected critical infrastructure, enabling further nationalization of private assets amid Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and logistics. Economic strains from fuel shortages and capital outflows have lowered approval ratings, yet the Kremlin is channeling focus into September State Duma elections and managing succession risks through term extensions for key figures like Investigative Committee head Alexander Bastrykin. No verified elite fractures or military unrest have emerged to threaten a coup attempt through late 2026, supporting the market’s strong “No” consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$126,321終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Putin’s security apparatus and loyal elite network continue to suppress potential internal challenges, with recent FSB arrests of alleged Ukrainian agents and expanded surveillance measures reinforcing regime control. A presidential decree signed August 24 authorizes seizure of underprotected critical infrastructure, enabling further nationalization of private assets amid Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and logistics. Economic strains from fuel shortages and capital outflows have lowered approval ratings, yet the Kremlin is channeling focus into September State Duma elections and managing succession risks through term extensions for key figures like Investigative Committee head Alexander Bastrykin. No verified elite fractures or military unrest have emerged to threaten a coup attempt through late 2026, supporting the market’s strong “No” consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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