The 98.3% market-implied probability of no Stripe IPO closing by June 30, 2026, stems from the standard multi-month U.S. listing process following the company’s updated S-1 filing on May 15, 2026, which targets an approximately $90 billion valuation. Stripe’s February 2026 tender offer at $159 billion and reported profitability in 2024–2025 underscore solid fundamentals, yet the compressed six-week window leaves insufficient time for roadshow execution, regulatory review, and investor marketing. Traders are pricing in historical IPO timelines and the absence of any announced listing date. An unusually expedited process amid favorable equity-market conditions could theoretically shift odds, though such acceleration remains improbable given current regulatory and operational realities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年6月30日までにIPOなし 98.2%
1,000億～1,200億ドル <1%
1,400億ドル以上 <1%
800〜1000億ドル <1%
$168,649 Vol.
$168,649 Vol.
2026/06/30
800億ドル未満
<1%
800〜1000億ドル
1%
1,000億～1,200億ドル
1%
1,200〜1,400億ドル
<1%
1,400億ドル以上
1%
2026年6月30日までにIPOなし
98%
2026年6月30日までにIPOなし 98.2%
1,000億～1,200億ドル <1%
1,400億ドル以上 <1%
800〜1000億ドル <1%
$168,649 Vol.
$168,649 Vol.
2026/06/30
800億ドル未満
$71,585 Vol.
<1%
800〜1000億ドル
$14,561 Vol.
1%
1,000億～1,200億ドル
$16,230 Vol.
1%
1,200〜1,400億ドル
$33,005 Vol.
<1%
1,400億ドル以上
$14,561 Vol.
1%
2026年6月30日までにIPOなし
$18,707 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.The 98.3% market-implied probability of no Stripe IPO closing by June 30, 2026, stems from the standard multi-month U.S. listing process following the company’s updated S-1 filing on May 15, 2026, which targets an approximately $90 billion valuation. Stripe’s February 2026 tender offer at $159 billion and reported profitability in 2024–2025 underscore solid fundamentals, yet the compressed six-week window leaves insufficient time for roadshow execution, regulatory review, and investor marketing. Traders are pricing in historical IPO timelines and the absence of any announced listing date. An unusually expedited process amid favorable equity-market conditions could theoretically shift odds, though such acceleration remains improbable given current regulatory and operational realities.
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Sep 22, 2025, 8:17 PM ET
音量
$168,649終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2025, 8:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.The 98.3% market-implied probability of no Stripe IPO closing by June 30, 2026, stems from the standard multi-month U.S. listing process following the company’s updated S-1 filing on May 15, 2026, which targets an approximately $90 billion valuation. Stripe’s February 2026 tender offer at $159 billion and reported profitability in 2024–2025 underscore solid fundamentals, yet the compressed six-week window leaves insufficient time for roadshow execution, regulatory review, and investor marketing. Traders are pricing in historical IPO timelines and the absence of any announced listing date. An unusually expedited process amid favorable equity-market conditions could theoretically shift odds, though such acceleration remains improbable given current regulatory and operational realities.
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
音量
$168,649終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2025, 8:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 98.3% market-implied probability of no Stripe IPO closing by June 30, 2026, stems from the standard multi-month U.S. listing process following the company’s updated S-1 filing on May 15, 2026, which targets an approximately $90 billion valuation. Stripe’s February 2026 tender offer at $159 billion and reported profitability in 2024–2025 underscore solid fundamentals, yet the compressed six-week window leaves insufficient time for roadshow execution, regulatory review, and investor marketing. Traders are pricing in historical IPO timelines and the absence of any announced listing date. An unusually expedited process amid favorable equity-market conditions could theoretically shift odds, though such acceleration remains improbable given current regulatory and operational realities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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