Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月1日までに 100.0%
2026年9月1日～14日 <1%
2026年9月15日〜30日 <1%
2026年10月1日〜31日 <1%
$114,890 Vol.
$114,890 Vol.
2026/09/01
2026年9月1日までに
はい
2026年9月1日～14日
いいえ
2026年9月15日〜30日
いいえ
2026年10月1日〜31日
いいえ
2026年11月1日までに戻らない
いいえ
2026年9月1日までに 100.0%
2026年9月1日～14日 <1%
2026年9月15日〜30日 <1%
2026年10月1日〜31日 <1%
$114,890 Vol.
$114,890 Vol.
2026/09/01
2026年9月1日までに
$29,262 Vol.
はい
2026年9月1日～14日
$27,841 Vol.
いいえ
2026年9月15日〜30日
$20,397 Vol.
いいえ
2026年10月1日〜31日
$21,235 Vol.
いいえ
2026年11月1日までに戻らない
$16,154 Vol.
いいえ
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$114,890終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$114,890終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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