Internal political deadlock within the Kurdistan Regional Government has stalled cabinet formation for over 18 months following the most recent parliamentary elections, leaving the semi-autonomous region focused on managing economic pressures and regional security threats rather than pursuing sovereignty. KRG leaders have repeatedly reaffirmed commitment to Iraq’s federal framework and good relations with Baghdad, particularly amid 2026 Iranian missile and drone strikes on positions in the Kurdistan Region that prompted de-escalation statements from Erbil. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum, which drew strong opposition from Iraq, Iran, and Turkey without international backing, continues to shape expectations. With no official declarations, legislative actions, or policy shifts toward independence by mid-2026, traders assess the December 31 deadline as highly unlikely to produce a qualifying outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$52,813 Vol.
$52,813 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$52,813 Vol.
$52,813 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal political deadlock within the Kurdistan Regional Government has stalled cabinet formation for over 18 months following the most recent parliamentary elections, leaving the semi-autonomous region focused on managing economic pressures and regional security threats rather than pursuing sovereignty. KRG leaders have repeatedly reaffirmed commitment to Iraq’s federal framework and good relations with Baghdad, particularly amid 2026 Iranian missile and drone strikes on positions in the Kurdistan Region that prompted de-escalation statements from Erbil. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum, which drew strong opposition from Iraq, Iran, and Turkey without international backing, continues to shape expectations. With no official declarations, legislative actions, or policy shifts toward independence by mid-2026, traders assess the December 31 deadline as highly unlikely to produce a qualifying outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$52,813終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal political deadlock within the Kurdistan Regional Government has stalled cabinet formation for over 18 months following the most recent parliamentary elections, leaving the semi-autonomous region focused on managing economic pressures and regional security threats rather than pursuing sovereignty. KRG leaders have repeatedly reaffirmed commitment to Iraq’s federal framework and good relations with Baghdad, particularly amid 2026 Iranian missile and drone strikes on positions in the Kurdistan Region that prompted de-escalation statements from Erbil. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum, which drew strong opposition from Iraq, Iran, and Turkey without international backing, continues to shape expectations. With no official declarations, legislative actions, or policy shifts toward independence by mid-2026, traders assess the December 31 deadline as highly unlikely to produce a qualifying outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$52,813終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal political deadlock within the Kurdistan Regional Government has stalled cabinet formation for over 18 months following the most recent parliamentary elections, leaving the semi-autonomous region focused on managing economic pressures and regional security threats rather than pursuing sovereignty. KRG leaders have repeatedly reaffirmed commitment to Iraq’s federal framework and good relations with Baghdad, particularly amid 2026 Iranian missile and drone strikes on positions in the Kurdistan Region that prompted de-escalation statements from Erbil. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum, which drew strong opposition from Iraq, Iran, and Turkey without international backing, continues to shape expectations. With no official declarations, legislative actions, or policy shifts toward independence by mid-2026, traders assess the December 31 deadline as highly unlikely to produce a qualifying outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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