NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season project below-normal activity through November, with 0-2 major hurricanes expected amid El Niño influences that suppress formation and intensification. Only three weak tropical storms have formed so far, none reaching hurricane strength, while the climatological peak approaches in early September. Category 5 landfalls remain exceptionally rare, with the last U.S. occurrence in 2018 and historical frequency averaging well under one per decade. These conditions, combined with limited remaining windows for rapid intensification and U.S. strikes before year-end, underpin the market's strong consensus against such an event.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
14% 確率
$139,488 Vol.
$139,488 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
14% 確率
$139,488 Vol.
$139,488 Vol.
2026/12/30
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season project below-normal activity through November, with 0-2 major hurricanes expected amid El Niño influences that suppress formation and intensification. Only three weak tropical storms have formed so far, none reaching hurricane strength, while the climatological peak approaches in early September. Category 5 landfalls remain exceptionally rare, with the last U.S. occurrence in 2018 and historical frequency averaging well under one per decade. These conditions, combined with limited remaining windows for rapid intensification and U.S. strikes before year-end, underpin the market's strong consensus against such an event.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
音量
$139,488終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season project below-normal activity through November, with 0-2 major hurricanes expected amid El Niño influences that suppress formation and intensification. Only three weak tropical storms have formed so far, none reaching hurricane strength, while the climatological peak approaches in early September. Category 5 landfalls remain exceptionally rare, with the last U.S. occurrence in 2018 and historical frequency averaging well under one per decade. These conditions, combined with limited remaining windows for rapid intensification and U.S. strikes before year-end, underpin the market's strong consensus against such an event.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
音量
$139,488終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season project below-normal activity through November, with 0-2 major hurricanes expected amid El Niño influences that suppress formation and intensification. Only three weak tropical storms have formed so far, none reaching hurricane strength, while the climatological peak approaches in early September. Category 5 landfalls remain exceptionally rare, with the last U.S. occurrence in 2018 and historical frequency averaging well under one per decade. These conditions, combined with limited remaining windows for rapid intensification and U.S. strikes before year-end, underpin the market's strong consensus against such an event.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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