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Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?

icon for Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?

Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?

新規
2026/12/31
Polymarket

$2,551 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$309 Vol.

10%

December 31

$1,077 Vol.

39%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Republican control of the Senate has enabled recent use of the reconciliation process to advance budget-related legislation with a simple majority vote.** The most recent example, the Secure America Act providing roughly $70 billion for immigration enforcement agencies, cleared the Senate on June 5, 2026, by a 52-47 party-line margin after a budget resolution adopted in April set instructions for the Judiciary and Homeland Security committees. That measure followed an earlier major reconciliation package enacted in 2025. As of mid-August 2026, no new budget resolution has advanced to launch additional reconciliation instructions. Senior Republican appropriators stated in June that a further package is “not an option,” citing concerns over defense funding and the regular appropriations process, even as some administration and House voices have floated ideas for defense or offsetting cuts. Any new bill would require fresh budget instructions, committee markups, Byrd rule compliance, and unified Republican support to reach the floor before the end of the 119th Congress.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$2,551
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 3:30 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Republican control of the Senate has enabled recent use of the reconciliation process to advance budget-related legislation with a simple majority vote.** The most recent example, the Secure America Act providing roughly $70 billion for immigration enforcement agencies, cleared the Senate on June 5, 2026, by a 52-47 party-line margin after a budget resolution adopted in April set instructions for the Judiciary and Homeland Security committees. That measure followed an earlier major reconciliation package enacted in 2025. As of mid-August 2026, no new budget resolution has advanced to launch additional reconciliation instructions. Senior Republican appropriators stated in June that a further package is “not an option,” citing concerns over defense funding and the regular appropriations process, even as some administration and House voices have floated ideas for defense or offsetting cuts. Any new bill would require fresh budget instructions, committee markups, Byrd rule compliance, and unified Republican support to reach the floor before the end of the 119th Congress.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$2,551
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 3:30 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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よくある質問

「Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?」はPolymarket上の3個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「December 31」で39%、次いで「September 30」が10%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、39¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に39%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です(Jun 26, 2026開始)。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている3個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?」の現在のフロントランナーは「December 31」で39%であり、市場がこの結果に39%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「September 30」で10%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。