Recent announcements have pushed the tally of Democratic House members not seeking re-election in 2026 into the low-to-mid 20s according to trackers such as Ballotpedia, while broader counts including those pursuing other offices reach around 30 per AP data as of mid-August. This range keeps the 20–23 and 24–27 buckets closely matched because filing deadlines vary by state and several members remain undecided or unannounced. Traders weigh historical midterm retirement patterns against the current cycle’s pace of departures for Senate or gubernatorial bids, alongside occasional resignations. Additional late announcements or clarifications on whether specific members are retiring outright versus seeking higher office could shift probabilities between these leading outcomes before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日20〜23 44.3%
24～27 37%
28～31 18.2%
20未満 7.6%
$44,551 Vol.
$44,551 Vol.
2026/08/31
20未満
8%
20〜23
44%
24～27
37%
28～31
10%
32〜35
7%
36～39
<1%
40人以上
1%
20〜23 44.3%
24～27 37%
28～31 18.2%
20未満 7.6%
$44,551 Vol.
$44,551 Vol.
2026/08/31
20未満
$17,793 Vol.
8%
20〜23
$9,759 Vol.
44%
24～27
$7,530 Vol.
37%
28～31
$1,924 Vol.
10%
32〜35
$4,526 Vol.
7%
36～39
$1,348 Vol.
<1%
40人以上
$1,671 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements have pushed the tally of Democratic House members not seeking re-election in 2026 into the low-to-mid 20s according to trackers such as Ballotpedia, while broader counts including those pursuing other offices reach around 30 per AP data as of mid-August. This range keeps the 20–23 and 24–27 buckets closely matched because filing deadlines vary by state and several members remain undecided or unannounced. Traders weigh historical midterm retirement patterns against the current cycle’s pace of departures for Senate or gubernatorial bids, alongside occasional resignations. Additional late announcements or clarifications on whether specific members are retiring outright versus seeking higher office could shift probabilities between these leading outcomes before resolution.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
音量
$44,551終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements have pushed the tally of Democratic House members not seeking re-election in 2026 into the low-to-mid 20s according to trackers such as Ballotpedia, while broader counts including those pursuing other offices reach around 30 per AP data as of mid-August. This range keeps the 20–23 and 24–27 buckets closely matched because filing deadlines vary by state and several members remain undecided or unannounced. Traders weigh historical midterm retirement patterns against the current cycle’s pace of departures for Senate or gubernatorial bids, alongside occasional resignations. Additional late announcements or clarifications on whether specific members are retiring outright versus seeking higher office could shift probabilities between these leading outcomes before resolution.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$44,551終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent announcements have pushed the tally of Democratic House members not seeking re-election in 2026 into the low-to-mid 20s according to trackers such as Ballotpedia, while broader counts including those pursuing other offices reach around 30 per AP data as of mid-August. This range keeps the 20–23 and 24–27 buckets closely matched because filing deadlines vary by state and several members remain undecided or unannounced. Traders weigh historical midterm retirement patterns against the current cycle’s pace of departures for Senate or gubernatorial bids, alongside occasional resignations. Additional late announcements or clarifications on whether specific members are retiring outright versus seeking higher office could shift probabilities between these leading outcomes before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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