Democratic House members face an elevated pace of departures ahead of the 2026 midterms, with roughly 20 incumbents already confirmed not to seek reelection as of mid-May. Traders assign the highest probability to the 32–35 range because additional announcements are expected before primary filing deadlines in most states, driven by an aging caucus, redistricting pressures in several districts, and members shifting to Senate or gubernatorial bids. Historical midterm cycles show retirements often accelerate in the spring and summer, while the current post-2024 environment has encouraged younger candidates to enter Democratic primaries. Key differentiators among bins include the volume of last-minute retirements versus those running for higher office, with the 28–35 outcomes reflecting the most likely consolidation around continued generational turnover rather than a sharp reversal or surge beyond 40.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日32〜35 32.0%
28～31 20%
24～27 19%
20〜23 13.2%
$31,654 Vol.
$31,654 Vol.
2026/08/31
20未満
3%
20〜23
13%
24～27
19%
28～31
20%
32〜35
32%
36～39
3%
40人以上
17%
32〜35 32.0%
28～31 20%
24～27 19%
20〜23 13.2%
$31,654 Vol.
$31,654 Vol.
2026/08/31
20未満
$16,991 Vol.
3%
20〜23
$5,250 Vol.
13%
24～27
$4,156 Vol.
19%
28～31
$1,174 Vol.
20%
32〜35
$3,574 Vol.
32%
36～39
$508 Vol.
3%
40人以上
$0 Vol.
17%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Democratic House members face an elevated pace of departures ahead of the 2026 midterms, with roughly 20 incumbents already confirmed not to seek reelection as of mid-May. Traders assign the highest probability to the 32–35 range because additional announcements are expected before primary filing deadlines in most states, driven by an aging caucus, redistricting pressures in several districts, and members shifting to Senate or gubernatorial bids. Historical midterm cycles show retirements often accelerate in the spring and summer, while the current post-2024 environment has encouraged younger candidates to enter Democratic primaries. Key differentiators among bins include the volume of last-minute retirements versus those running for higher office, with the 28–35 outcomes reflecting the most likely consolidation around continued generational turnover rather than a sharp reversal or surge beyond 40.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
音量
$31,654終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Democratic House members face an elevated pace of departures ahead of the 2026 midterms, with roughly 20 incumbents already confirmed not to seek reelection as of mid-May. Traders assign the highest probability to the 32–35 range because additional announcements are expected before primary filing deadlines in most states, driven by an aging caucus, redistricting pressures in several districts, and members shifting to Senate or gubernatorial bids. Historical midterm cycles show retirements often accelerate in the spring and summer, while the current post-2024 environment has encouraged younger candidates to enter Democratic primaries. Key differentiators among bins include the volume of last-minute retirements versus those running for higher office, with the 28–35 outcomes reflecting the most likely consolidation around continued generational turnover rather than a sharp reversal or surge beyond 40.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$31,654終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic House members face an elevated pace of departures ahead of the 2026 midterms, with roughly 20 incumbents already confirmed not to seek reelection as of mid-May. Traders assign the highest probability to the 32–35 range because additional announcements are expected before primary filing deadlines in most states, driven by an aging caucus, redistricting pressures in several districts, and members shifting to Senate or gubernatorial bids. Historical midterm cycles show retirements often accelerate in the spring and summer, while the current post-2024 environment has encouraged younger candidates to enter Democratic primaries. Key differentiators among bins include the volume of last-minute retirements versus those running for higher office, with the 28–35 outcomes reflecting the most likely consolidation around continued generational turnover rather than a sharp reversal or surge beyond 40.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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