The closely matched prices for the 36–39, 40–43, and 44+ Republican House retirements reflect the record pace of announcements so far this cycle, with roughly 36–37 members already stepping aside or seeking other offices. Legislative gridlock, opportunities in state races such as governorships, and uncertainty over the 2026 midterm environment have accelerated departures among longer-serving Republicans, exceeding the totals seen in recent comparable cycles. With filing deadlines and primary contests still ahead, additional announcements or shifts in plans could push the final count across the current clustering of outcomes, while historical patterns of late-cycle decisions keep the ranges competitive.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日44人以上 40.9%
28～31 12%
32〜35 <1%
24未満 <1%
$56,541 Vol.
$56,541 Vol.
2026/08/31
24未満
<1%
24〜27
<1%
28～31
13%
32〜35
<1%
36～39
39%
40～43
41%
44人以上
41%
44人以上 40.9%
28～31 12%
32〜35 <1%
24未満 <1%
$56,541 Vol.
$56,541 Vol.
2026/08/31
24未満
$3,907 Vol.
<1%
24〜27
$18,964 Vol.
<1%
28～31
$21,831 Vol.
13%
32〜35
$4,611 Vol.
<1%
36～39
$2,548 Vol.
39%
40～43
$2,077 Vol.
41%
44人以上
$2,602 Vol.
41%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The closely matched prices for the 36–39, 40–43, and 44+ Republican House retirements reflect the record pace of announcements so far this cycle, with roughly 36–37 members already stepping aside or seeking other offices. Legislative gridlock, opportunities in state races such as governorships, and uncertainty over the 2026 midterm environment have accelerated departures among longer-serving Republicans, exceeding the totals seen in recent comparable cycles. With filing deadlines and primary contests still ahead, additional announcements or shifts in plans could push the final count across the current clustering of outcomes, while historical patterns of late-cycle decisions keep the ranges competitive.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
音量
$56,541終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The closely matched prices for the 36–39, 40–43, and 44+ Republican House retirements reflect the record pace of announcements so far this cycle, with roughly 36–37 members already stepping aside or seeking other offices. Legislative gridlock, opportunities in state races such as governorships, and uncertainty over the 2026 midterm environment have accelerated departures among longer-serving Republicans, exceeding the totals seen in recent comparable cycles. With filing deadlines and primary contests still ahead, additional announcements or shifts in plans could push the final count across the current clustering of outcomes, while historical patterns of late-cycle decisions keep the ranges competitive.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$56,541終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The closely matched prices for the 36–39, 40–43, and 44+ Republican House retirements reflect the record pace of announcements so far this cycle, with roughly 36–37 members already stepping aside or seeking other offices. Legislative gridlock, opportunities in state races such as governorships, and uncertainty over the 2026 midterm environment have accelerated departures among longer-serving Republicans, exceeding the totals seen in recent comparable cycles. With filing deadlines and primary contests still ahead, additional announcements or shifts in plans could push the final count across the current clustering of outcomes, while historical patterns of late-cycle decisions keep the ranges competitive.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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