As of mid-August 2026, 36–40 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning closely with the 36–39 range that commands roughly 81% implied probability in the market. Primary drivers include a record pace of departures for the cycle, with members citing runs for Senate or governor seats, redistricting impacts, and institutional frustrations amid a narrow Republican majority heading into the midterms. Recent tallies from trackers show 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total House retirements or exits, the highest in decades outside 1992. The market's tight clustering around this band reflects the limited window for additional announcements before the August 31 resolution, though late filings or unexpected shifts could still adjust the final count within a narrow range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日36～39 82.5%
40～43 6.2%
32〜35 4.6%
44人以上 2.3%
$71,865 Vol.
$71,865 Vol.
2026/08/31
24未満
1%
24〜27
2%
28～31
1%
32〜35
5%
36～39
83%
40～43
6%
44人以上
2%
36～39 82.5%
40～43 6.2%
32〜35 4.6%
44人以上 2.3%
$71,865 Vol.
$71,865 Vol.
2026/08/31
24未満
$6,266 Vol.
1%
24〜27
$20,164 Vol.
2%
28～31
$23,648 Vol.
1%
32〜35
$6,174 Vol.
5%
36～39
$8,153 Vol.
83%
40～43
$3,871 Vol.
6%
44人以上
$3,589 Vol.
2%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, 36–40 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning closely with the 36–39 range that commands roughly 81% implied probability in the market. Primary drivers include a record pace of departures for the cycle, with members citing runs for Senate or governor seats, redistricting impacts, and institutional frustrations amid a narrow Republican majority heading into the midterms. Recent tallies from trackers show 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total House retirements or exits, the highest in decades outside 1992. The market's tight clustering around this band reflects the limited window for additional announcements before the August 31 resolution, though late filings or unexpected shifts could still adjust the final count within a narrow range.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
音量
$71,865終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, 36–40 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning closely with the 36–39 range that commands roughly 81% implied probability in the market. Primary drivers include a record pace of departures for the cycle, with members citing runs for Senate or governor seats, redistricting impacts, and institutional frustrations amid a narrow Republican majority heading into the midterms. Recent tallies from trackers show 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total House retirements or exits, the highest in decades outside 1992. The market's tight clustering around this band reflects the limited window for additional announcements before the August 31 resolution, though late filings or unexpected shifts could still adjust the final count within a narrow range.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$71,865終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-August 2026, 36–40 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning closely with the 36–39 range that commands roughly 81% implied probability in the market. Primary drivers include a record pace of departures for the cycle, with members citing runs for Senate or governor seats, redistricting impacts, and institutional frustrations amid a narrow Republican majority heading into the midterms. Recent tallies from trackers show 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total House retirements or exits, the highest in decades outside 1992. The market's tight clustering around this band reflects the limited window for additional announcements before the August 31 resolution, though late filings or unexpected shifts could still adjust the final count within a narrow range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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