Trader consensus prices exactly seven Republican senators not seeking re-election at 66.5%, matching the seven public announcements: Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana, March 4), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, March 24). These early March retirements amid a midterm cycle—where Republicans defend 22 seats—pushed the count to seven, with no further announcements in the past seven weeks. Odds for eight (19.1%) or eleven (23.5%) reflect bets on additional exits from vulnerable incumbents before late-August filing deadlines, consistent with historical midterm retirement waves for the president's party.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7 63%
11 21.0%
8 14.6%
6 10.3%
$73,731 Vol.
$73,731 Vol.
2026/08/31
5未満
1%
5
6%
6
10%
7
63%
8
18%
9
3%
10
3%
11
21%
12人以上
1%
7 63%
11 21.0%
8 14.6%
6 10.3%
$73,731 Vol.
$73,731 Vol.
2026/08/31
5未満
$20,070 Vol.
1%
5
$15,535 Vol.
6%
6
$26,450 Vol.
10%
7
$2,145 Vol.
63%
8
$1,599 Vol.
18%
9
$1,328 Vol.
3%
10
$1,265 Vol.
3%
11
$923 Vol.
21%
12人以上
$4,416 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices exactly seven Republican senators not seeking re-election at 66.5%, matching the seven public announcements: Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana, March 4), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, March 24). These early March retirements amid a midterm cycle—where Republicans defend 22 seats—pushed the count to seven, with no further announcements in the past seven weeks. Odds for eight (19.1%) or eleven (23.5%) reflect bets on additional exits from vulnerable incumbents before late-August filing deadlines, consistent with historical midterm retirement waves for the president's party.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
音量
$73,731終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices exactly seven Republican senators not seeking re-election at 66.5%, matching the seven public announcements: Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana, March 4), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, March 24). These early March retirements amid a midterm cycle—where Republicans defend 22 seats—pushed the count to seven, with no further announcements in the past seven weeks. Odds for eight (19.1%) or eleven (23.5%) reflect bets on additional exits from vulnerable incumbents before late-August filing deadlines, consistent with historical midterm retirement waves for the president's party.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$73,731終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices exactly seven Republican senators not seeking re-election at 66.5%, matching the seven public announcements: Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana, March 4), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, March 24). These early March retirements amid a midterm cycle—where Republicans defend 22 seats—pushed the count to seven, with no further announcements in the past seven weeks. Odds for eight (19.1%) or eleven (23.5%) reflect bets on additional exits from vulnerable incumbents before late-August filing deadlines, consistent with historical midterm retirement waves for the president's party.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問