The SAVE Act (H.R. 22), requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, passed the House in April 2025 and again in February 2026 by narrow partisan margins but remains stalled in the Senate, where recent cloture motions failed in March and April 2026 amid Democratic opposition citing potential disenfranchisement of eligible voters lacking documents. Traders' 91% implied probability on "No" reflects the bill's inability to secure the 60 votes needed to overcome filibuster, a persistent barrier for divisive election legislation, with no committee advancement or floor vote scheduled. Lame-duck session post-2026 midterms offers a slim path forward, though historical precedents show low enactment rates for such measures without bipartisan buy-in.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$165,816 Vol.
$165,816 Vol.
はい
$165,816 Vol.
$165,816 Vol.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日: Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The SAVE Act (H.R. 22), requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, passed the House in April 2025 and again in February 2026 by narrow partisan margins but remains stalled in the Senate, where recent cloture motions failed in March and April 2026 amid Democratic opposition citing potential disenfranchisement of eligible voters lacking documents. Traders' 91% implied probability on "No" reflects the bill's inability to secure the 60 votes needed to overcome filibuster, a persistent barrier for divisive election legislation, with no committee advancement or floor vote scheduled. Lame-duck session post-2026 midterms offers a slim path forward, though historical precedents show low enactment rates for such measures without bipartisan buy-in.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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