**Diplomatic momentum following the 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict has anchored trader expectations against a full-scale U.S. invasion before 2027.** After U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in late February 2026 triggered a short but intense period of hostilities, including Iranian missile responses and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, the parties shifted rapidly to negotiations. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire, reopened shipping lanes, and launched technical talks on Iran's nuclear program, IAEA inspections, sanctions relief, and related issues, with further rounds continuing into summer 2026 under the Trump administration. Vice President JD Vance and other officials have highlighted progress on inspectors returning and interim agreements, while both sides avoid new sanctions or major force deployments. Ongoing indirect talks in Qatar and Switzerland, combined with Iran's commitments to maintain nuclear status quo during negotiations, signal a preference for coercive diplomacy over ground operations. Historical patterns of U.S. restraint on large-scale invasions of Iran, logistical and political costs, and the current focus on a final deal within defined timelines reinforce the 83.5% "No" consensus. Late disruptions remain possible but appear unlikely to alter the near-term trajectory.