U.S. policy toward Iran has centered on targeted airstrikes against military and defense infrastructure, naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz, and troop deployments since early 2026, without any ground offensive to seize territory. President Trump has repeatedly prioritized diplomacy and sanctions pressure over large-scale invasion, rejecting Iran's latest ceasefire offer on May 11 while continuing indirect nuclear talks and emphasizing limited special operations options. These developments, combined with Pentagon assessments of high costs and risks associated with occupying Iranian soil, underpin the 69.5% trader consensus on "No" by December 31, 2026. Upcoming diplomatic rounds and Iranian responses to U.S. proposals remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$28,709,565 Vol.
$28,709,565 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$28,709,565 Vol.
$28,709,565 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.U.S. policy toward Iran has centered on targeted airstrikes against military and defense infrastructure, naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz, and troop deployments since early 2026, without any ground offensive to seize territory. President Trump has repeatedly prioritized diplomacy and sanctions pressure over large-scale invasion, rejecting Iran's latest ceasefire offer on May 11 while continuing indirect nuclear talks and emphasizing limited special operations options. These developments, combined with Pentagon assessments of high costs and risks associated with occupying Iranian soil, underpin the 69.5% trader consensus on "No" by December 31, 2026. Upcoming diplomatic rounds and Iranian responses to U.S. proposals remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
音量
$28,709,565終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.U.S. policy toward Iran has centered on targeted airstrikes against military and defense infrastructure, naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz, and troop deployments since early 2026, without any ground offensive to seize territory. President Trump has repeatedly prioritized diplomacy and sanctions pressure over large-scale invasion, rejecting Iran's latest ceasefire offer on May 11 while continuing indirect nuclear talks and emphasizing limited special operations options. These developments, combined with Pentagon assessments of high costs and risks associated with occupying Iranian soil, underpin the 69.5% trader consensus on "No" by December 31, 2026. Upcoming diplomatic rounds and Iranian responses to U.S. proposals remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$28,721,972終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. policy toward Iran has centered on targeted airstrikes against military and defense infrastructure, naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz, and troop deployments since early 2026, without any ground offensive to seize territory. President Trump has repeatedly prioritized diplomacy and sanctions pressure over large-scale invasion, rejecting Iran's latest ceasefire offer on May 11 while continuing indirect nuclear talks and emphasizing limited special operations options. These developments, combined with Pentagon assessments of high costs and risks associated with occupying Iranian soil, underpin the 69.5% trader consensus on "No" by December 31, 2026. Upcoming diplomatic rounds and Iranian responses to U.S. proposals remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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