Recent U.S.-Iran tensions escalated into joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in February 2026 targeting Iranian leadership and military sites, followed by Iranian missile and drone retaliation. A ceasefire took hold in April, leading to a June memorandum of understanding mediated by Pakistan and Qatar that reopened the Strait of Hormuz, eased some sanctions, and launched nuclear talks. As of mid-August 2026, negotiations remain stalled over Hormuz access and sanctions relief, prompting renewed U.S. economic pressure and naval presence rather than expanded ground operations. Traders view this diplomatic track and preference for sanctions over occupation as the dominant factors supporting an 83.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion before 2027.