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World·Trump Presidency

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

icon for Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
World·Trump Presidency

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$7,523,455 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$7,523,455 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31

$550,820 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US military operations against Iran began on February 28, 2026, under Operation Epic Fury without a congressional declaration of war, consistent with longstanding presidential use of force authorities. A ceasefire has held since April 7–8, with President Trump notifying Congress on May 1 that hostilities had terminated to bypass the War Powers Resolution deadline. Ongoing negotiations center on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limits on Iran’s nuclear program, and sanctions relief, with the latest US proposal under review by Tehran as of May 9 and counterproposals exchanged in mid-May. Trader sentiment reflects these diplomatic channels and the absence of recent escalatory moves or legislative pushes for formal war authorization, leaving any declaration dependent on breakdown in talks or major new military developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,523,455
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US military operations against Iran began on February 28, 2026, under Operation Epic Fury without a congressional declaration of war, consistent with longstanding presidential use of force authorities. A ceasefire has held since April 7–8, with President Trump notifying Congress on May 1 that hostilities had terminated to bypass the War Powers Resolution deadline. Ongoing negotiations center on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limits on Iran’s nuclear program, and sanctions relief, with the latest US proposal under review by Tehran as of May 9 and counterproposals exchanged in mid-May. Trader sentiment reflects these diplomatic channels and the absence of recent escalatory moves or legislative pushes for formal war authorization, leaving any declaration dependent on breakdown in talks or major new military developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,523,455
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 8%, followed by "March 31" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?" has generated $7.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?" is "December 31" at just 8%, with "March 31" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.