Trader consensus on Polymarket has rapidly converged on 25°C as the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on May 16, reflected in the 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum of exactly 25°C under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limited afternoon heating. Recent surface data and satellite analysis showed temperatures aligning with mid-May climatological baselines, with no significant warm advection or urban heat-island intensification pushing readings higher. While earlier ensemble forecasts had allowed for slight upside potential, final verified measurements across multiple stations eliminated those scenarios. Revised station data or localized microclimate anomalies remain the only realistic pathways that could alter resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 16?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 16?
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$302,807 거래량
$302,807 거래량
2026.05.16
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$302,807 거래량
$302,807 거래량
2026.05.16
19°C or below
$20,087 거래량
<1%
20°C
$12,423 거래량
<1%
21°C
$12,259 거래량
<1%
22°C
$6,633 거래량
<1%
23°C
$4,753 거래량
<1%
24°C
$37,336 거래량
<1%
25°C
$77,368 거래량
100%
26°C
$43,033 거래량
<1%
27°C
$39,653 거래량
<1%
28°C
$25,261 거래량
<1%
29°C or higher
$24,002 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has rapidly converged on 25°C as the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on May 16, reflected in the 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum of exactly 25°C under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limited afternoon heating. Recent surface data and satellite analysis showed temperatures aligning with mid-May climatological baselines, with no significant warm advection or urban heat-island intensification pushing readings higher. While earlier ensemble forecasts had allowed for slight upside potential, final verified measurements across multiple stations eliminated those scenarios. Revised station data or localized microclimate anomalies remain the only realistic pathways that could alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
거래량
$302,807종료일
2026.05.16마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has rapidly converged on 25°C as the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on May 16, reflected in the 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum of exactly 25°C under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limited afternoon heating. Recent surface data and satellite analysis showed temperatures aligning with mid-May climatological baselines, with no significant warm advection or urban heat-island intensification pushing readings higher. While earlier ensemble forecasts had allowed for slight upside potential, final verified measurements across multiple stations eliminated those scenarios. Revised station data or localized microclimate anomalies remain the only realistic pathways that could alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$302,807종료일
2026.05.16마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has rapidly converged on 25°C as the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on May 16, reflected in the 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum of exactly 25°C under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limited afternoon heating. Recent surface data and satellite analysis showed temperatures aligning with mid-May climatological baselines, with no significant warm advection or urban heat-island intensification pushing readings higher. While earlier ensemble forecasts had allowed for slight upside potential, final verified measurements across multiple stations eliminated those scenarios. Revised station data or localized microclimate anomalies remain the only realistic pathways that could alter resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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