Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate Miami’s daytime high today will likely fall in the mid-80s under partly cloudy skies and typical May humidity. Light easterly flow and a developing sea breeze are moderating peak temperatures by enhancing mixing and limiting full solar heating, which explains the tight market split favoring the 84–85 °F bracket. Forecast uncertainty stems mainly from afternoon convective development that could either cap or briefly exceed model consensus, with official observations from Miami International Airport serving as the resolution source. Traders are therefore weighting current model runs and short-term trends more heavily than climatological normals near 87 °F.