National Weather Service forecast models currently project a daily high of 86–89°F at Miami International Airport on May 18, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 86–87°F (39.5%) and 88–89°F (27.5%). This range reflects typical mid-May subtropical conditions driven by a stable high-pressure ridge, light southerly flow, and afternoon sea-breeze moderation that limits further warming. Recent model runs show minimal disagreement, with low precipitation chances and no strong frontal passages expected to alter the thermal profile. Historical climatology places the average high near 85–87°F for this date, providing a baseline against which traders weigh slight model variability in boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover. Updated short-range guidance on May 17 will refine the final probability distribution before official resolution via the Miami station observation.