National Weather Service ensemble guidance and recent runs from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM models indicate a high-pressure ridge over the Northeast promoting southerly flow and clear skies that will drive maximum temperatures at LaGuardia Airport into the mid-to-upper 80s on May 17. This setup explains the tight clustering around the 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F bins, with differences arising mainly from variations in afternoon mixing depth and the precise timing of peak solar heating. Traders are pricing in modest uncertainty tied to these model discrepancies while awaiting official observations that will resolve the market by evening, consistent with typical mid-May climatology for the region.