Recent National Weather Service model ensembles converge on a peak temperature near 85–87°F at LaGuardia Airport, the official station for NYC resolution, which underpins the market’s tight clustering around the 86–87°F and 88–89°F bins. Minor spreads among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions stem from differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of maximum solar heating under mostly sunny, light-wind conditions typical for mid-May. Historical climatology places the May 17 average high near 72–76°F, so this warm anomaly reflects a transient ridge of high pressure; traders weigh the narrow uncertainty range in these short-range forecasts against the risk of a slightly earlier or deeper mix that could push readings one or two degrees higher.