Latest National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco International Airport (KSFO)—the market's resolution source—project a daytime high near 66°F on May 14, fueling the 57.5% implied probability for 66°F or higher and 31.5% for 64-65°F as traders weigh model consensus against marine layer persistence. Persistent westerly winds of 15-25 mph will advect cool Pacific air, capping temperatures amid partial afternoon clearing, consistent with May climatology where SFO averages 67°F highs but often sees fog-delayed warming. Recent 24-hour updates from NOAA ensembles show minimal shifts from prior runs, with low outbreak risk for 70°F+ due to strong onshore flow; historical analogs support this range amid neutral ENSO conditions. Hourly observations beginning early May 14 will drive final positioning as the market resolves by midnight.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 14?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 14?
66°F or higher 55%
64-65°F 35%
62-63°F 12.4%
60-61°F 3.5%
신규
$14,822 거래량
신규
$14,822 거래량
2026.05.14
47°F or below
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
35%
66°F or higher
50%
66°F or higher 55%
64-65°F 35%
62-63°F 12.4%
60-61°F 3.5%
신규
$14,822 거래량
신규
$14,822 거래량
2026.05.14
47°F or below
$671 거래량
<1%
48-49°F
$658 거래량
<1%
50-51°F
$1,067 거래량
<1%
52-53°F
$1,255 거래량
<1%
54-55°F
$1,748 거래량
<1%
56-57°F
$1,276 거래량
<1%
58-59°F
$891 거래량
1%
60-61°F
$1,220 거래량
3%
62-63°F
$1,888 거래량
12%
64-65°F
$1,908 거래량
35%
66°F or higher
$2,239 거래량
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco International Airport (KSFO)—the market's resolution source—project a daytime high near 66°F on May 14, fueling the 57.5% implied probability for 66°F or higher and 31.5% for 64-65°F as traders weigh model consensus against marine layer persistence. Persistent westerly winds of 15-25 mph will advect cool Pacific air, capping temperatures amid partial afternoon clearing, consistent with May climatology where SFO averages 67°F highs but often sees fog-delayed warming. Recent 24-hour updates from NOAA ensembles show minimal shifts from prior runs, with low outbreak risk for 70°F+ due to strong onshore flow; historical analogs support this range amid neutral ENSO conditions. Hourly observations beginning early May 14 will drive final positioning as the market resolves by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 12, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
거래량
$14,822종료일
2026.05.14마켓 개설일
May 12, 2026, 12:08 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco International Airport (KSFO)—the market's resolution source—project a daytime high near 66°F on May 14, fueling the 57.5% implied probability for 66°F or higher and 31.5% for 64-65°F as traders weigh model consensus against marine layer persistence. Persistent westerly winds of 15-25 mph will advect cool Pacific air, capping temperatures amid partial afternoon clearing, consistent with May climatology where SFO averages 67°F highs but often sees fog-delayed warming. Recent 24-hour updates from NOAA ensembles show minimal shifts from prior runs, with low outbreak risk for 70°F+ due to strong onshore flow; historical analogs support this range amid neutral ENSO conditions. Hourly observations beginning early May 14 will drive final positioning as the market resolves by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$14,822종료일
2026.05.14마켓 개설일
May 12, 2026, 12:08 AM ETLatest National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco International Airport (KSFO)—the market's resolution source—project a daytime high near 66°F on May 14, fueling the 57.5% implied probability for 66°F or higher and 31.5% for 64-65°F as traders weigh model consensus against marine layer persistence. Persistent westerly winds of 15-25 mph will advect cool Pacific air, capping temperatures amid partial afternoon clearing, consistent with May climatology where SFO averages 67°F highs but often sees fog-delayed warming. Recent 24-hour updates from NOAA ensembles show minimal shifts from prior runs, with low outbreak risk for 70°F+ due to strong onshore flow; historical analogs support this range amid neutral ENSO conditions. Hourly observations beginning early May 14 will drive final positioning as the market resolves by midnight.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문