Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 14°C high temperature in Wellington at 55% implied probability for May 14, driven by MetService's latest evening update (issued 5:13pm May 13) forecasting exactly that daytime maximum under mainly fine conditions with southerlies easing after recent showers. Persistent cool southerly airflow from a high-pressure ridge—following yesterday's 14°C airport reading—suppresses temperatures near the May climatological average of 14°C at Wellington International Airport station, the market's resolution source. A 32.5% chance on 15°C reflects occasional model warm biases and potential afternoon clearing, while NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook reinforces low-teens clustering; new hourly observations and tomorrow's forecast refresh could refine odds further.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Wellington on May 14?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 14?
14°C 54%
15°C 34%
16°C 6.7%
17°C 1.9%
신규
$23,769 거래량
신규
$23,769 거래량
2026.05.14
13°C
<1%
14°C
54%
15°C
34%
16°C
7%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
1%
14°C 54%
15°C 34%
16°C 6.7%
17°C 1.9%
신규
$23,769 거래량
신규
$23,769 거래량
2026.05.14
13°C
$6,327 거래량
<1%
14°C
$2,283 거래량
54%
15°C
$1,729 거래량
34%
16°C
$2,788 거래량
7%
17°C
$1,830 거래량
2%
18°C or higher
$3,576 거래량
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 14°C high temperature in Wellington at 55% implied probability for May 14, driven by MetService's latest evening update (issued 5:13pm May 13) forecasting exactly that daytime maximum under mainly fine conditions with southerlies easing after recent showers. Persistent cool southerly airflow from a high-pressure ridge—following yesterday's 14°C airport reading—suppresses temperatures near the May climatological average of 14°C at Wellington International Airport station, the market's resolution source. A 32.5% chance on 15°C reflects occasional model warm biases and potential afternoon clearing, while NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook reinforces low-teens clustering; new hourly observations and tomorrow's forecast refresh could refine odds further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
거래량
$23,769종료일
2026.05.14마켓 개설일
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 14°C high temperature in Wellington at 55% implied probability for May 14, driven by MetService's latest evening update (issued 5:13pm May 13) forecasting exactly that daytime maximum under mainly fine conditions with southerlies easing after recent showers. Persistent cool southerly airflow from a high-pressure ridge—following yesterday's 14°C airport reading—suppresses temperatures near the May climatological average of 14°C at Wellington International Airport station, the market's resolution source. A 32.5% chance on 15°C reflects occasional model warm biases and potential afternoon clearing, while NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook reinforces low-teens clustering; new hourly observations and tomorrow's forecast refresh could refine odds further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$23,769종료일
2026.05.14마켓 개설일
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 14°C high temperature in Wellington at 55% implied probability for May 14, driven by MetService's latest evening update (issued 5:13pm May 13) forecasting exactly that daytime maximum under mainly fine conditions with southerlies easing after recent showers. Persistent cool southerly airflow from a high-pressure ridge—following yesterday's 14°C airport reading—suppresses temperatures near the May climatological average of 14°C at Wellington International Airport station, the market's resolution source. A 32.5% chance on 15°C reflects occasional model warm biases and potential afternoon clearing, while NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook reinforces low-teens clustering; new hourly observations and tomorrow's forecast refresh could refine odds further.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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