This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim trader consensus edge over Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein in Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary, reflecting his strong historical performance and independent voter base despite a fresh Quantus Insights poll from May 11-12 showing Gallrein leading 53%-45% among likely voters with leaners. Massive ad spending—nearing $25 million, the costliest U.S. House primary ever—has fueled nasty exchanges, including AI-generated attacks on Massie's voting record and backlash over claims against Gallrein's veteran benefits. Trump's rallies and endorsement bolster Gallrein among older voters, while Massie leads younger cohorts; the May 19 primary will test GOP loyalty amid high turnout expectations in this battleground matchup.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim trader consensus edge over Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein in Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary, reflecting his strong historical performance and independent voter base despite a fresh Quantus Insights poll from May 11-12 showing Gallrein leading 53%-45% among likely voters with leaners. Massive ad spending—nearing $25 million, the costliest U.S. House primary ever—has fueled nasty exchanges, including AI-generated attacks on Massie's voting record and backlash over claims against Gallrein's veteran benefits. Trump's rallies and endorsement bolster Gallrein among older voters, while Massie leads younger cohorts; the May 19 primary will test GOP loyalty amid high turnout expectations in this battleground matchup.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
May 13 2026
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallrein’s cash‑on‑hand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallrein’s cash‑on‑hand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the primary and supporting the latest
May 11 2026
The Kentucky GOP primary becomes the most expensive U.S.
Thomas Massie plunges to 62%16%
House primary ever, with over $25.6 million in ad spending, most of it by Gallrein’s campaign
May 7 2026
Courier‑Journal analysis links Trump’s Indiana primary upsets to Gallrein’s momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trump’s endorsement remains “extraordinary value,”
Ed Gallrein surges to 44%21%
Courier‑Journal analysis links Trump’s Indiana primary upsets to Gallrein’s momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trump’s endorsement remains “extraordinary value,” which coincides with a sharp
May 5 2026
WKYU‑FM reports AI‑deep‑fake attack ads from opposing super‑PACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallrein‑focused ad portraying him as a “coward,” sparking controversy and a
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%9%
WKYU‑FM reports AI‑deep‑fake attack ads from opposing super‑PACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallrein‑focused ad portraying him as a “coward,” sparking controversy and a brief
May 5 2026
WKYU FM reports AI “deep‑fake” attack ads targeting both candidates;
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%7%
the Gallrein‑focused ad draws criticism and likely depresses his odds further
Apr 2 2026
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5‑point surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengers—including Robert Wells Jr.—down to 28 cents,
Robert Wells Jr. dips to 0%1%
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5‑point surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengers—including Robert Wells Jr.—down to 28 cents, reflecting a sharp sell‑off on Wells’s odds
Feb 24 2026
Report on “who’s behind the millions” reveals out‑of‑state billionaire donors and pro‑Israel PACs pouring over $1 million into anti‑Massie ads, signalling a spending surge for
Ed Gallrein jumps to 30%6%
Report on “who’s behind the millions” reveals out‑of‑state billionaire donors and pro‑Israel PACs pouring over $1 million into anti‑Massie ads, signalling a spending surge for Gallrein’s side and lifting his odds
Jan 6 2026
President Trump publicly endorses Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, a primary rival, and attacks Rep.
Nicole Lee Ethington dips to 1%2%
Thomas Massie, drawing attention away from Ethington and boosting Gallrein’s fundraising
Jun 15 2025
Former President Donald Trump publicly endorses incumbent Rep.
Robert Wells Jr. drops to 1%13%
Thomas Massie and calls for a primary challenge against him, signaling strong establishment support for Massie over lesser‑known challengers like Wells
Jan 9 2025
Kentucky Secretary of State confirms Robert Wells Jr.
Robert Wells Jr. plunges to 3%43%
files paperwork to run for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim trader consensus edge over Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein in Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary, reflecting his strong historical performance and independent voter base despite a fresh Quantus Insights poll from May 11-12 showing Gallrein leading 53%-45% among likely voters with leaners. Massive ad spending—nearing $25 million, the costliest U.S. House primary ever—has fueled nasty exchanges, including AI-generated attacks on Massie's voting record and backlash over claims against Gallrein's veteran benefits. Trump's rallies and endorsement bolster Gallrein among older voters, while Massie leads younger cohorts; the May 19 primary will test GOP loyalty amid high turnout expectations in this battleground matchup.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim trader consensus edge over Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein in Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary, reflecting his strong historical performance and independent voter base despite a fresh Quantus Insights poll from May 11-12 showing Gallrein leading 53%-45% among likely voters with leaners. Massive ad spending—nearing $25 million, the costliest U.S. House primary ever—has fueled nasty exchanges, including AI-generated attacks on Massie's voting record and backlash over claims against Gallrein's veteran benefits. Trump's rallies and endorsement bolster Gallrein among older voters, while Massie leads younger cohorts; the May 19 primary will test GOP loyalty amid high turnout expectations in this battleground matchup.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
May 13 2026
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallrein’s cash‑on‑hand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallrein’s cash‑on‑hand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the primary and supporting the latest
May 11 2026
The Kentucky GOP primary becomes the most expensive U.S.
Thomas Massie plunges to 62%16%
House primary ever, with over $25.6 million in ad spending, most of it by Gallrein’s campaign
May 7 2026
Courier‑Journal analysis links Trump’s Indiana primary upsets to Gallrein’s momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trump’s endorsement remains “extraordinary value,”
Ed Gallrein surges to 44%21%
Courier‑Journal analysis links Trump’s Indiana primary upsets to Gallrein’s momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trump’s endorsement remains “extraordinary value,” which coincides with a sharp
May 5 2026
WKYU‑FM reports AI‑deep‑fake attack ads from opposing super‑PACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallrein‑focused ad portraying him as a “coward,” sparking controversy and a
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%9%
WKYU‑FM reports AI‑deep‑fake attack ads from opposing super‑PACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallrein‑focused ad portraying him as a “coward,” sparking controversy and a brief
May 5 2026
WKYU FM reports AI “deep‑fake” attack ads targeting both candidates;
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%7%
the Gallrein‑focused ad draws criticism and likely depresses his odds further
Apr 2 2026
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5‑point surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengers—including Robert Wells Jr.—down to 28 cents,
Robert Wells Jr. dips to 0%1%
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5‑point surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengers—including Robert Wells Jr.—down to 28 cents, reflecting a sharp sell‑off on Wells’s odds
Feb 24 2026
Report on “who’s behind the millions” reveals out‑of‑state billionaire donors and pro‑Israel PACs pouring over $1 million into anti‑Massie ads, signalling a spending surge for
Ed Gallrein jumps to 30%6%
Report on “who’s behind the millions” reveals out‑of‑state billionaire donors and pro‑Israel PACs pouring over $1 million into anti‑Massie ads, signalling a spending surge for Gallrein’s side and lifting his odds
Jan 6 2026
President Trump publicly endorses Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, a primary rival, and attacks Rep.
Nicole Lee Ethington dips to 1%2%
Thomas Massie, drawing attention away from Ethington and boosting Gallrein’s fundraising
Jun 15 2025
Former President Donald Trump publicly endorses incumbent Rep.
Robert Wells Jr. drops to 1%13%
Thomas Massie and calls for a primary challenge against him, signaling strong establishment support for Massie over lesser‑known challengers like Wells
Jan 9 2025
Kentucky Secretary of State confirms Robert Wells Jr.
Robert Wells Jr. plunges to 3%43%
files paperwork to run for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
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외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문
"KY-04 공화당 1차 우승자"은 4개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 56%의 "토머스 매시"이며, 이어서 46%의 "Ed Gallrein"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 56¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 56%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.
오늘 현재 "KY-04 공화당 1차 우승자"은 총 $965.6K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Dec 1, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.
"KY-04 공화당 1차 우승자"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 4개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.
"KY-04 공화당 1차 우승자"의 현재 유력 후보는 56%의 "토머스 매시"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 56%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 46%의 "Ed Gallrein"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.
"KY-04 공화당 1차 우승자"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.
네. 정보를 얻기 위해 거래할 필요가 없습니다. 이 페이지는 "KY-04 공화당 1차 우승자"의 실시간 추적기 역할을 합니다. 결과 확률은 새로운 거래가 들어옴에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트됩니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하고 다른 트레이더들이 무엇을 말하는지 댓글 섹션을 확인할 수 있습니다. 차트의 시간 범위 필터를 사용하여 확률이 시간에 따라 어떻게 변화했는지 확인할 수도 있습니다. 마켓이 기대하는 바에 대한 무료 실시간 창입니다.
Polymarket 확률은 자신의 신념에 실제 돈을 투자하는 트레이더들에 의해 설정되어 정확한 예측을 표면화하는 경향이 있습니다. "KY-04 공화당 1차 우승자"에 $965.6K이 거래되어 이 가격은 수천 명의 참가자의 집단 지식과 확신을 집계합니다 — 여론조사, 전문가 예측, 기존 설문조사를 종종 능가합니다. Polymarket과 같은 예측 마켓은 특히 이벤트가 정산일에 가까워질수록 강한 정확도 실적을 가지고 있습니다. 예를 들어 Polymarket의 1개월 정확도 점수는 94%입니다. Polymarket의 예측 정확도에 대한 최신 통계는 정확도 페이지를 방문하세요.
"KY-04 공화당 1차 우승자"에서 첫 거래를 하려면 무료 Polymarket 계정에 가입하고 암호화폐, 신용 또는 직불카드, 은행 이체를 사용하여 자금을 입금하세요. 계정에 자금이 입금되면 이 페이지로 돌아와 거래하려는 결과를 선택하고 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 예측 마켓이 처음이라면 Polymarket 페이지 상단의 "이용 방법" 링크를 클릭하여 거래 방법에 대한 단계별 안내를 확인하세요.
Polymarket에서 각 결과의 가격은 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타냅니다. "KY-04 공화당 1차 우승자" 마켓에서 "토머스 매시"의 56¢ 가격은 트레이더들이 "토머스 매시"이 정확한 결과가 될 확률을 대략 56%로 보고 있음을 의미합니다. 56¢에 "Yes" 주식을 매수하고 결과가 맞으면 주당 $1.00을 받습니다 — 주당 44¢의 수익입니다. 틀리면 해당 주식은 $0의 가치입니다.
"KY-04 공화당 1차 우승자" 마켓은 May 19, 2026 전후에 정산될 예정입니다. 이는 해당 날짜까지 거래가 계속 열려 있고 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 계속 변할 것임을 의미합니다. 정확한 정산 시기는 이 페이지의 "규칙" 섹션에 명시된 대로 공식 결과가 이용 가능해지는 시점에 따라 달라집니다.
"KY-04 공화당 1차 우승자" 마켓에는 트레이더들이 분석을 공유하고, 결과를 토론하고, 최신 진전을 논의하는 69개 댓글의 활발한 커뮤니티이 있습니다. 아래 댓글 섹션으로 스크롤하여 다른 참가자들의 의견을 읽어보세요. "상위 보유자"로 필터링하여 마켓의 가장 큰 트레이더들의 포지션을 확인하거나 "활동" 탭에서 실시간 거래 피드를 확인할 수도 있습니다.
Polymarket은 세계 최대 예측 마켓으로, 실제 이벤트에 대한 지식으로 정보를 얻고 수익을 낼 수 있습니다. 트레이더들은 정치, 선거, 암호화폐, 금융, 스포츠, 기술, 문화 등 "KY-04 공화당 1차 우승자"과 같은 마켓을 포함한 다양한 주제의 결과에 대한 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 가격은 금전적 확신에 뒷받침된 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영하며, 여론조사, 전문가, 기존 설문조사보다 빠르고 정확한 신호를 제공하는 경우가 많습니다.
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외부 링크에 주의하세요.
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