Incumbent Rep. Julia Letlow's January announcement to seek the U.S. Senate seat vacated LA-05, a solidly Republican district with a Cook PVI of R+18, propelling trader consensus toward a GOP hold at 87.5% implied probability. Blake Miguez leads the crowded Republican primary field with over $6 million raised and Trump's endorsement, per April fundraising reports and Bedrock polling showing him at 23%—far outpacing underfunded Democrats like Dan McKay ($44,000 raised). The Supreme Court's April ruling in Louisiana v. Callais invalidated the congressional map as an unconstitutional gerrymander, prompting Gov. Jeff Landry to suspend the May 16 primaries on April 30; the state Senate advanced a new map May 13 that preserves LA-05's Republican tilt while eliminating one Democratic seat statewide. Rescheduled primaries and November 3 general election loom as key catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
11%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$2,020 거래량
88%
Democratic Party
$2,458 거래량
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Julia Letlow's January announcement to seek the U.S. Senate seat vacated LA-05, a solidly Republican district with a Cook PVI of R+18, propelling trader consensus toward a GOP hold at 87.5% implied probability. Blake Miguez leads the crowded Republican primary field with over $6 million raised and Trump's endorsement, per April fundraising reports and Bedrock polling showing him at 23%—far outpacing underfunded Democrats like Dan McKay ($44,000 raised). The Supreme Court's April ruling in Louisiana v. Callais invalidated the congressional map as an unconstitutional gerrymander, prompting Gov. Jeff Landry to suspend the May 16 primaries on April 30; the state Senate advanced a new map May 13 that preserves LA-05's Republican tilt while eliminating one Democratic seat statewide. Rescheduled primaries and November 3 general election loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$4,478종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Julia Letlow's January announcement to seek the U.S. Senate seat vacated LA-05, a solidly Republican district with a Cook PVI of R+18, propelling trader consensus toward a GOP hold at 87.5% implied probability. Blake Miguez leads the crowded Republican primary field with over $6 million raised and Trump's endorsement, per April fundraising reports and Bedrock polling showing him at 23%—far outpacing underfunded Democrats like Dan McKay ($44,000 raised). The Supreme Court's April ruling in Louisiana v. Callais invalidated the congressional map as an unconstitutional gerrymander, prompting Gov. Jeff Landry to suspend the May 16 primaries on April 30; the state Senate advanced a new map May 13 that preserves LA-05's Republican tilt while eliminating one Democratic seat statewide. Rescheduled primaries and November 3 general election loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$4,478종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Julia Letlow's January announcement to seek the U.S. Senate seat vacated LA-05, a solidly Republican district with a Cook PVI of R+18, propelling trader consensus toward a GOP hold at 87.5% implied probability. Blake Miguez leads the crowded Republican primary field with over $6 million raised and Trump's endorsement, per April fundraising reports and Bedrock polling showing him at 23%—far outpacing underfunded Democrats like Dan McKay ($44,000 raised). The Supreme Court's April ruling in Louisiana v. Callais invalidated the congressional map as an unconstitutional gerrymander, prompting Gov. Jeff Landry to suspend the May 16 primaries on April 30; the state Senate advanced a new map May 13 that preserves LA-05's Republican tilt while eliminating one Democratic seat statewide. Rescheduled primaries and November 3 general election loom as key catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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