Recent DOJ actions have centered on sanctions violations rather than formal agent charges, with the April arrest of Shamim Mafi for arms brokering failing to meet the market’s criteria for Iranian government-directed covert activity. No qualifying indictments have emerged since the March conviction tied to an IRGC-linked plot, leaving traders to price the narrow remaining window through May 31. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations under the current administration have further reduced expectations of new espionage or intelligence-related charges absent escalation in threats. This absence of fresh developments drives the current 58% implied probability on No, reflecting the market’s assessment that procedural or diplomatic factors make an eleventh-hour announcement unlikely.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.05.31
신규
신규
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent DOJ actions have centered on sanctions violations rather than formal agent charges, with the April arrest of Shamim Mafi for arms brokering failing to meet the market’s criteria for Iranian government-directed covert activity. No qualifying indictments have emerged since the March conviction tied to an IRGC-linked plot, leaving traders to price the narrow remaining window through May 31. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations under the current administration have further reduced expectations of new espionage or intelligence-related charges absent escalation in threats. This absence of fresh developments drives the current 58% implied probability on No, reflecting the market’s assessment that procedural or diplomatic factors make an eleventh-hour announcement unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
거래량
$5,800종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent DOJ actions have centered on sanctions violations rather than formal agent charges, with the April arrest of Shamim Mafi for arms brokering failing to meet the market’s criteria for Iranian government-directed covert activity. No qualifying indictments have emerged since the March conviction tied to an IRGC-linked plot, leaving traders to price the narrow remaining window through May 31. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations under the current administration have further reduced expectations of new espionage or intelligence-related charges absent escalation in threats. This absence of fresh developments drives the current 58% implied probability on No, reflecting the market’s assessment that procedural or diplomatic factors make an eleventh-hour announcement unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$5,800종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent DOJ actions have centered on sanctions violations rather than formal agent charges, with the April arrest of Shamim Mafi for arms brokering failing to meet the market’s criteria for Iranian government-directed covert activity. No qualifying indictments have emerged since the March conviction tied to an IRGC-linked plot, leaving traders to price the narrow remaining window through May 31. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations under the current administration have further reduced expectations of new espionage or intelligence-related charges absent escalation in threats. This absence of fresh developments drives the current 58% implied probability on No, reflecting the market’s assessment that procedural or diplomatic factors make an eleventh-hour announcement unlikely.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문